Retro collecting is dying!

General and Gaming > Classic Video Games

<< < (21/31) > >>

exonerator:

--- Quote from: DreamsDied13101 on February 11, 2014, 04:19:14 pm ---
--- Quote from: exonerator on February 11, 2014, 02:36:58 pm ---
Also, I agree with Hexen. I await the day the market crashes. Vintage gaming will never die, but a big price drop is bound to happen. It's only the calm before the storm.

--- End quote ---

Any reasoning behind this theory? I'm not saying I disagree, but I was just curious why this would come about?

--- End quote ---
It's been discussed earlier in the thread, but here's my theory. Here's a little timeline using NES as an example. I have a good friend who runs the game trading part of a popular local comic shop, and we've discussed this many times over the past years, and some of our theorycrafting has come to light. Even though it's a theory, it's an informed one.

Production, 1985-1995: NES games are available at Zellers, Woolworths, Macy's, etc. Super Mario Bros. 3 cost around $45 new.
Obsolescence, 1995-2006: Newer consoles are released. The NES becomes obsolete. The majority of NES games become available for dirt cheap on the free market. It was common to see Super Mario Bros. 3 and Legend of Zelda carts in pawn shops and grottos for ~$5 in the early 2000's.
Trends, 2006-Now: Demand slowly goes up because of recent trends (8-bit aesthetic, AVGN, Let's Players, etc). It has yet to peak. but signs of slowing within the few years are possible, but that will be discussed later.
Hoarding, 2008-2009: Soon-to-be resellers buy all the stock at these unassuming stores. NintendoAge is the epicenter for these resellers.
Market Spike 2010-Now: Resellers take advantage and spike the market. Unassuming hipsters keep purcahsing at ridiculous prices. Small stores catch on. Super Mario Bros. 3 is $30 at my local video store.

There are two ways the economy can die after this.

Redistribution of Wealth: The demand goes down because it's just a trend for most people, then the prices will in turn go down as well, as resellers perform damage control on a dying market and liquidate their stock. This is where we come in and roll around in games like Scrooge McDuck (metaphorically of course, but we would have that many games after this happens.)

Back to the Future Part 2 Theory: (Worst case scenario! Grab your light guns, stand your ground, and vote R.O.B.ublican) Though that copy of Jaws in the window might not cost $100 in 2015, it might in 2020. The demand skyrockets (Let's Plays and the like still being popular for years to come), supply will go down, in time prices will go way too far up, and the demand will slowly die as no one will buy a copy of SMB3 for $80. It'll be hard for new collectors to enter the game, and old collectors will already have the games that are expensively priced.

However, it could always stay the same. It's unlikely because of how the market fluctuates, and with trends still being popular as ever, or more so, but it always could become a mobius strip of prices falling and rising, never going anywhere. Fear the future.

EDIT: burningdoom, you hit the nail on the head. Can't believe I forgot to make the comic comparison.

sin2beta:
I was skeptical of a bubble before. I was more of a fluctuation type of guy. Prices are high before they settle. However, the recent troll bidding on the NWC's driving up the prices of actual NWCs sold, mixed with the Flintstones crap, mixed with Gamester81 stating he doesn't collect for the NES anymore because of the prices has me thinking there is something more happening.

I got out of Nintendo collecting years ago because of how the scene changed. I've mentioned that before. However, I did not think too much about it. I have a low tolerance for that crap. But when someone like Gamester81 stops collecting for something, that makes me think things are really bad.

I still stand by, I don't think retro gaming is a bubble that will pop. I think Nintendo/Sony collecting is a bubble that will pop. SEGA collecting still feels like it and Nintendo collecting was in the 90s. There are a few exceptions for really high profile games. But it is a handful. Meanwhile boxed SNES games being over $100 is not uncommon at all.

Side note: Wow, exonerator. Someone loves evangelion.

DreamsDied13101:
I think some of your guy's theories are correct, but overall I think prices will continue to rise.

I sell toy collections as a side business.

As the average person continues to make more money in each year the value of items will continue to rise too. Ever since Ebay, Craigslist and Amazon became household names people have seen that they can take valuables that were once only found in garage sales, pawn shops and flea markets and reach a huge audience worldwide. The more people your items can be seen by the more likely you will get more demand - this is how advertising works.

This current state of video games is different in my opinion than Comic Books and Baseball Cards because those two had high dollar investors actually using these items like stocks. They soon found out that a commodity like this doesn't work the same as real stocks or precious metals. The reason is because value is determined by scarcity. The more comic books became popular the more issues the companies printed.

Some games over time may fluctuate and go through trends, but on a whole the more rare an item is the value will continue to rise. For example - I could buy a pristine Sega Master System complete with box and all papework 14 years ago for $20. Now that same system could fetch a few hundred dollars or more because now they are hard to come by. 14 years ago a Neo Geo in pristine condition with box and all paperwork was selling for a few hundred dollars now they sell for twice that or more.
Ebay and other sites have allowed people to find an audience that loves collecting these items and as the scarcity goes up you will see collectors fighting over the remaining items available.

I don't think we will see a real downturn in the video game market until video games themselves lose their popularity or until a future generation finds a different way of enjoying them (such as all consoles fail and IOS takes over the world).

Actually comic books are a perfect example of this. Even though comics books have been around since the early 1900's and their popularity have fluctuated up and down over the years. The value of early rare comic books continue to go up.

burningdoom:
^ You're completely right. The rare items will continue to stay rare and climb in value. The same can be said for comic books and baseball cards.

What we're talking about are the common games being touted as "rare games" and being sold at outrageous prices. Like Mario games for example. Nothing rare about those at all. Yet they still garner a high resell value. The same thing happened in the 90s with comic books and baseball cards, like was pointed out. An issue of Wolverine that had a high printing run, and sold well, that came out only few months earlier; would skyrocket in value just because it was a popular story (but there would be nothing significant about the issue to justify the rise in price).

We're hoping these resellers that artificially raise the value of many games will go away when the bubble bursts.

DreamsDied13101:

--- Quote from: burningdoom on February 11, 2014, 06:48:40 pm ---^ You're completely right. The rare items will continue to stay rare and climb in value. The same can be said for comic books and baseball cards.

What we're talking about are the common games being touted as "rare games" and being sold at outrageous prices. Like Mario games for example. Nothing rare about those at all. Yet they still garner a high resell value. The same thing happened in the 90s with comic books and baseball cards, like was pointed out. An issue of Wolverine that had a high printing run, and sold well, that came out only few months earlier; would skyrocket in value just because it was a popular story (but there would be nothing significant about the issue to justify the rise in price).

We're hoping these resellers that artificially raise the value of many games will go away when the bubble bursts.

--- End quote ---

I agree. If those sellers are selling games for more money than the market can bare then yes the prices will come down. Unfortunately I have seen many people paying these prices. There are more people collecting games than I can remember 10-15 years ago. You could buy sealed NES and SNES games for dirt cheap back in the late 90's early 2000's. Relatively though those were only the 3rd generation console users buying at that time. Now we have a few decades worth of video game fans buying retro games and I believe will continue to do so unless the market drastically changes.

Navigation

 Message Index

Go to full version