Retro collecting is dying!

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scott:
Yup, even my local sports memorabilia shop is mostly a Magic and games dealer now.

DreamsDied13101:
Thanks for the analysis! It is pretty solid!

I would add that the inflation % since the NES time period is roughly 120%.

Cartridges actually sold high for used games back in the 80's they then plummeted all through the 90's. Ever since the 2000's they have risen back up and are now more expensive than they were in the 80's. Due to the 120% inflation some of that is accounted for. Some of the newly added value is the scarcity of the item. Some of the added value could be due to "a bubble" in the market.

Also I would like to note that not all games have gone up 350% in the past 10 years. I have some games I bought back in 2003 and these are the prices. Super Mario Bros. 3 for $5. Adventures of Lolo 3 for $20. Now these games are respectively $15 and $35.

Makes me wonder if games that hold more nostalgic treasure for someone who played it when they were young are driving some games to insane prices. Where as some of the less known games are less than doubling in cost.

--- Quote from: sin2beta on February 13, 2014, 06:44:49 pm ---
It wasn't last gen. Those prices were on the cusp of the dreamcast. The NES was 2.5 generations old.

It has to be looked at in multiple ways to try and minimize the apple to oranges comparison. First, compare with contemporaries. Have most other consoles at that time experienced a similar jump in prices. Not really. The Master System and Atari are still fairly cheap. The TG-16 only recently began climbing in price. If you look at the collecting trends, people have been finishing their NES collections and moving to TG-16 or SNES primarily. It's the same group causing most of that cost increase.

You also have to look at it in terms of percentage of price then and price now. Ultimately, a cart only game from 25 years ago is 25% the cost of a brand new retail game. It is 50%-75% the cost of a new retail game approximately 1 year after release. To me, this is fairly telling.

You also have to look at it in terms of inflation. In 1998 Mario 3 was $3. In 2014 it is $15. The best that I can find reliably is 2013 dollars, so we have to go with that. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics $1 (1998) = 1.42 (2013). This implies Mario 3 should be $4.26 absent outside market influences. I stated earlier they were twice what they should be. That was taking into account some level of nostalgia driving the price up for people. 200% seems reasonable. A 352% increase from the inflation adjusted price seems overpriced.

So, comparing them to both the older consoles and modern consoles, the NES ranks on the high end.

--- End quote ---

90snostalga:

--- Quote from: tripredacus on February 14, 2014, 01:44:20 pm ---
--- Quote from: 90snostalga on February 13, 2014, 03:44:57 pm ---Anyone remember when Baseball Cards were very popular to collect in the 90s? Now, they're not worth a lick. That bubble popped...

--- End quote ---

Actually this is incorrect. The entire market is smaller than what it was then, but Baseball cards are the #1 market for cards right now. Those cards from the 80s and 90s are pretty much junk but current cards are very much in demand.

--- End quote ---
I could be wrong of course but I know that I have thousands of baseball cards. Some from the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. I remember back in the year 2000 when I was a teen, I was pricing them thinking of getting rid of them, and I had some individual cards worth over 200 and 300 dollars each at that time. I had a local card shop offer me 2,000 for all my cards. My dad talked me out of it saying that I should wait till I'm old because they may be worth 20x what they were then. Last year I tried selling my collection on Ebay and it would not sell. I looked up the prices on some of the more valuable one's and they were not selling more than 10 dollars a card.

My local sports memorb. shop acts like they do not even want all my cards. They offered 100 dollars for my whole set and thats it. Their baseball selection is very minimal and they just clearly said the demand for baseball cards is not high right now.

I figured the bubble must have popped on it, and I'm just holding them till when Im 60 or so, to see if the market changes for them at that time.

exonerator:

--- Quote from: scott on February 14, 2014, 02:13:45 pm ---Yup, even my local sports memorabilia shop is mostly a Magic and games dealer now.

--- End quote ---
Same here. A store around here called "Cards, Coins, and Collectibles" just sells boxes of MtG and Yugioh, and rare singles. They're as expensive as ever, and that's not even counting truly rare cards like Black Lotus. Tarmogoyf is still $150 minimum, and Mecha Phantom Beast Draccosack is still like $75 or so. With prices like these, you'd think that MtGox was a site that traded MtG cards and showed daily highs and lows.

scott:
I'd love to own a Black Lotus, just to have it. :(

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