| General and Gaming > Classic Video Games |
| Where do you think the gaming landscape will be in 20 years from now? |
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| rayne315:
--- Quote from: kamikazekeeg on November 24, 2015, 02:58:11 am --- --- Quote from: rayne315 on November 23, 2015, 06:48:21 pm --- --- Quote from: maximo310 on November 23, 2015, 03:38:28 pm ---I feel that in addition to mostly everything beng digital, companies will also try to push streaming for game content possibly due to advancements in technology. --- End quote --- I do not thing pushing streaming would be very wise from the perspective of new games are 20-50GB a piece anymore. That is a shit ton of data to be transferred everytime you want to play a game. From a data standpoint my ISP only give me 200-250 GB of data a month. If streaming games became popular ISP's would get absolutely bogged down and It doesn't matter how many MB' upload/download you pay for if your ISP reaches the limits of their structures. --- End quote --- 20 years is a hell of a leap tech wise and we are at the point where our internet infrastructure has to be overhauled and expanded with the likes of fiber, giving everyone a severe boost. In 20 years, we'll be looking at the speeds right now as if we were looking at dialup now lol I think most gaming will be digital for sure. There's really no reason not too, but I could see some form of physical content continuing on. Gaming by way of an SD card/USB type plugin. Small, cheap, can hold plenty of gigs. With everything basically digitized now, I don't think the old school will ever be forgotten. As long as companies like Nintendo, Sega, Sony, and Microsoft still exist, they'll want to release those games again and again. Not too mention that parents who brought up their kids on those games and then will bring up the next generation on them, it'll still hold a place. Plus a lot of properties and characters are a part of pop culture. That stuff doesn't disappear when we still have stuff from the 80's coming back. In 20 years, things that were popular right now will have that nostalgia for those that grow up. --- End quote --- What Im saying is that how many customers do you think the typical ISP has? even a local brach? 10,000? 100,000? now how many of those housholds do you think are/will be gaming households in 20 years? 1/3rd? a half? and how many days do you think the average gamer plays a game a week? 2 days? 3 days? In 20 years how large of files do you believe the typical AAA game will be? what it is currently (20-50gb)? 100gb? A TB? (NOTE: all numbers above are strictly guesses.) so knowing that a single fiber optic cable has a 10-50gb/s transfer rate depending on distance from the source (the source being the server that holds the data) which would in this case either be places like Nintendo/Sony/Microsofts's server locations or It would be sourced from the developers servers. meaning that If you live anywhere more than 500-1000 miles (800-1600km) away from said locations your looking at the 10gb/s range. using my lower end numbers a local ISP will be looking at 33.33TB of traffic a day from gamers alone (simple math below) and this is completely ignoring things like peoples sleep times peak hours and other stuff like that. (which would realistically put 90% of that traffic in a 8-10 hour stretch) and to try and further put that into perspective the company I work for has roughly 2000 employees and we are a data heavy industry and our transfers only account for >2 TB of transfers a day as we have a 10TB allowance for the work week and rarely get close to it. 10000/3= 3333 gamers * 2 days = 6666 the number of times a game needs to be streamed in a week * 35gb average of current data requirements for a AAA game=233310gb/1000=233.31 TB in a weeks time /7 days = 33.33TB of data a day just for 3333 people connected to a local branch of an ISP so If you look at all the data then you will see how improbable it will be that streaming new games becomes a thing. |
| gf78:
I can't see game streaming becoming the sole method of "distribution" for gaming. As Rayne pointed out, that is a helluva lot of bandwidth and with the "progression" of broadband in the US, even 20 years from now we won't be able to make this a widespread reality. Just a few years ago, I was finally able to receive high-speed internet. It's a local company using towers for an LTE signal. Max speed is 10MBps up, 1MBps down. All plans are tiered with a data cap, the highest being 35gigs per month. I registered for a tax ID number so I could qualify for a business plan with unlimited data. I pay $162 a month for that and my phone service. It is the only internet available in my area with the exception of Hughesnet and Excede. If anyone has ever had experience with these two "providers" you will know that this is no option at all. As it stands, I have to kick my kids of their laptops, phones, iPod's or whatever they are using to be able to play online as the bandwidth isn't enough for them to watch YouTube or whatever they are doing and allow me to have a smooth gaming experience. As for future delivery options for games, I would have no problem with game cards similar to 3DS cards. They have enough space to store today's larger games and undoubtedly, they will be able to cram more into a card that size in 20 years. I would love it if you bought a game, then when they release DLC (good stuff like Bethesda's), you could save it directly to the card that your game is already on. |
| kamikazekeeg:
--- Quote from: rayne315 on November 24, 2015, 10:38:47 am --- --- Quote from: kamikazekeeg on November 24, 2015, 02:58:11 am --- --- Quote from: rayne315 on November 23, 2015, 06:48:21 pm --- --- Quote from: maximo310 on November 23, 2015, 03:38:28 pm ---I feel that in addition to mostly everything beng digital, companies will also try to push streaming for game content possibly due to advancements in technology. --- End quote --- I do not thing pushing streaming would be very wise from the perspective of new games are 20-50GB a piece anymore. That is a shit ton of data to be transferred everytime you want to play a game. From a data standpoint my ISP only give me 200-250 GB of data a month. If streaming games became popular ISP's would get absolutely bogged down and It doesn't matter how many MB' upload/download you pay for if your ISP reaches the limits of their structures. --- End quote --- 20 years is a hell of a leap tech wise and we are at the point where our internet infrastructure has to be overhauled and expanded with the likes of fiber, giving everyone a severe boost. In 20 years, we'll be looking at the speeds right now as if we were looking at dialup now lol I think most gaming will be digital for sure. There's really no reason not too, but I could see some form of physical content continuing on. Gaming by way of an SD card/USB type plugin. Small, cheap, can hold plenty of gigs. With everything basically digitized now, I don't think the old school will ever be forgotten. As long as companies like Nintendo, Sega, Sony, and Microsoft still exist, they'll want to release those games again and again. Not too mention that parents who brought up their kids on those games and then will bring up the next generation on them, it'll still hold a place. Plus a lot of properties and characters are a part of pop culture. That stuff doesn't disappear when we still have stuff from the 80's coming back. In 20 years, things that were popular right now will have that nostalgia for those that grow up. --- End quote --- What Im saying is that how many customers do you think the typical ISP has? even a local brach? 10,000? 100,000? now how many of those housholds do you think are/will be gaming households in 20 years? 1/3rd? a half? and how many days do you think the average gamer plays a game a week? 2 days? 3 days? In 20 years how large of files do you believe the typical AAA game will be? what it is currently (20-50gb)? 100gb? A TB? (NOTE: all numbers above are strictly guesses.) so knowing that a single fiber optic cable has a 10-50gb/s transfer rate depending on distance from the source (the source being the server that holds the data) which would in this case either be places like Nintendo/Sony/Microsofts's server locations or It would be sourced from the developers servers. meaning that If you live anywhere more than 500-1000 miles (800-1600km) away from said locations your looking at the 10gb/s range. using my lower end numbers a local ISP will be looking at 33.33TB of traffic a day from gamers alone (simple math below) and this is completely ignoring things like peoples sleep times peak hours and other stuff like that. (which would realistically put 90% of that traffic in a 8-10 hour stretch) and to try and further put that into perspective the company I work for has roughly 2000 employees and we are a data heavy industry and our transfers only account for >2 TB of transfers a day as we have a 10TB allowance for the work week and rarely get close to it. 10000/3= 3333 gamers * 2 days = 6666 the number of times a game needs to be streamed in a week * 35gb average of current data requirements for a AAA game=233310gb/1000=233.31 TB in a weeks time /7 days = 33.33TB of data a day just for 3333 people connected to a local branch of an ISP so If you look at all the data then you will see how improbable it will be that streaming new games becomes a thing. --- End quote --- That's very good reasoning, I certainly didn't know the numbers when it comes to this stuff, but that makes sense. I was less pushing for the idea of streaming being the big focus for gaming, more of just the overall digital landscape being a much bigger focus, and that our internet would be significantly better then compared to now, but what you said does push out game streaming being a big deal. Short of maybe some brand new advancement that puts fiber to shame by then, it's a far off idea, especially when we consider how long it is taking to get our current infrastructure boosted to higher standards. |
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