Messages

1

General / Re: Market Crash Hypothesis

« on: May 07, 2018, 08:38:19 am »

Video Game collecting will be no different than any other major collecting trend over the past 30 years. Sports cards, comics, vintage toys, Atari (I know they're video games, but Atari and pre-NES era collecting was big in the late 90s and early 2000s), and other collecting trends of old collectables all were insanely hot for a number of years before the people that built the trend up left leaving the resellers to fight amongst themselves for stuff no one wanted to buy anymore.

Video game collecting will be no different and according the the historical price data we have finally reached that point where the decrease in interest is starting to show. This has manifested itself in certain retro consoles plateauing in price, mostly Nintendo stuff, but other consoles like the Saturn and Dreamcast are seeing huge decreases in prices right now. Like the other collecting trends I mentioned, people who grew up with this stuff and actually care to hunt it down or pay top dollar for a 20-year old game are leaving the hobby because they've taken on other financial responsibilities, have started families, or just got burned out of video game collecting.

Some people make the argument that video games are immune to the same burnout and overall lack of interest that the other hobbies have experienced, but this is untrue since retro games appeal mostly to people who grew up with them, which at this point are getting older and older and have moved on. I find it unlikely that a few hipsters or hardcore retro game enthusiasts born after the year 2000 will care about the NES library or even the PS2 since they were so young when it was being supported, at least not enough to keep prices up where they're at.

With all that said, I don't think game prices will ever return to what they were before video game collecting exploded in popularity, but I do see things overall dipping below 50% of their current value on everything except the rarest of titles.

I used to collect baseball cards as a kid, and that was where I cut my teeth on how collectors markets work. Once the market went from "hey this is fun, whose got what cards, look at the cool variants" to "value value money money rarities rarities," the market up and died. Sports card collecting has never recovered. Back then, baseball cards (and sports cards in general, but baseball cards had a 50+ year history) had become big business, and were widely sold everywhere. Now, they take up small end sections in department stores, and dedicated stand-alone shops have largely vanished.

The baseball card industry killed itself in large part because of the same reasons the comics industry killed itself in the 90's. Overproduced, too many deliberate collectibles, and too many people ravenously buying, hoarding, and reselling. The video game industry is seeing this in modern times with ludicrous amounts of special and limited editions of games, numerous different variants of the same base release (there was what, 4 or 5 different ways to purchase Far Cry 5?), and a collectors market that allowed prices to reach absurd levels.

Have to agree that I don't think the collectors market for video games is immune to a crash or price plummet. We have our Action Comics #1 rarities (like Stadium Events NES or Atlantis II 2600), but given the much younger age of video games, they are still much more common and tend to be in better shape. For the most part, it would seem the current collecting trend has run on for quite a while, and those who feel it is immune or that it can never crash should be seen as the hubris that actually precedes collapse.

Hell, in any documentary I've watched or event I've read about where something reached a peak and then came plummeting back to the bottom, the turning point always came with a massive new peak and a perception that the target in question was invincible or going to go on forever. Be it Enron or Worldcom, the baseball card or comics industries of the 90's, or more recently, Cryptocurrency, which saw it's greatest peak last December, and has been plummeting ever since.

2

General / Re: Market Crash Hypothesis

« on: May 07, 2018, 08:24:31 am »

Everyone wants to make money, and most of the retro market will eventually all go pricey. Especially with the fact that a lot of modern games are digital only downloads and are likely to close their servers or take the games off the online store.

 And I know that the retro gaming market will get outrageously high in the future. letting only the rich in on the retro gaming goods.

Both of these points would tend to lead towards a reversal or recession. If the market gets so high only the wealthiest are fighting over it, that will kill interest for anyone else and there will, effectively, be no more interested buyers. The fears brought on by the Nintendo Age guys over Tim Atwood selling his collection would seem to indicate a serious fragility in the market where a single person with an impressive collection can destabilize the market.

I've wondered about the longevity of modern games, and the current generation is essentially the "least collectible" in the history of the medium since vast numbers of the releases are digital-only. Indeed, the majority of releases are digital now. One part of this has to do with the ease of digital games, but also stems from a wider conversation about how "middle-ground" games are vanishing. It's comparable to how the Middle Class in the US is shrinking, so too in gaming is the middle class (AA, A, B-level games) shrinking. Countless games are very online-centric now, and patches, add-ons, and updates are so commonplace we've stopped complaining about them as an industry. On top of which, both Microsoft and Sony have floated ideas of moving to a more mobile-phone style upgrade system, which should, properly implemented, mean every system going forward is backwards-compatible, at least on a digital front.

3

General / Market Crash Hypothesis

« on: May 06, 2018, 05:19:18 pm »

Hey folks! 

If I don't appear familiar, it's because I've been more pre-occupied with my other collecting hobby for a while, and am returning to game collecting as a primary focus. One ebbs, the other flows, as it were.

I had a discussion with a fellow collector chum in the UK about how sustainable this market is. We get along because of a shared fascination with gaming, classic gaming, gaming hardware, and our own personal quirks. We aren't doing this to build some kind of asinine future "nest egg" or to get rich. But we're getting increasingly jaded by the gross inflation of prices on the secondary market. Neither of us believe this is sustainable, and will eventually lead to a retro gaming "recession" if not a full-blown "crash."

At some point the horrible reseller gouging and eBay effect (wherein regular people look up Buy It Nows and think they can charge equally offensive prices, you see this at garage sales and second-hand stores) will simply kill the fun and enjoyment of this hobby. It has become apparent that there are people out there, like some people from Nintendo Age, that seem to want to control market prices with artificial shortages and price gouging. With Tim Atwood threatening to offload his collection to deliberately destabilize the gougers. This other mega-collector, noted at Kotaku, is preparing to offload a massive collection at the end of May.

Personally, I don't do this looking for a big pay-out in the future. I don't even seek the most valuable titles. As far as I'm concerned, this is the worst reason to collect anything. It destroys the fun, and it is horribly unpredictable, for instance, remembering my mother collecting Beanie Babies and the bottom falling out of that in the worst way.

Prices have shot up to an insulting degree in recent years. Around 5 years ago, I got my Jaguar and 4 boxed games for around $80 or so. One of those was the original Rayman, which then, was around $30, so I was pretty happy with the deal. Now, eBay sales have gouged this regularly up to around $200--just for the Rayman game.

How much are we, as collectors, willing to tolerate? When major stockholders start offloading like the two links I noted, stock markets tend to plummet, and it signals an end. Where I live, more stores selling classic games have closed than are now open. Are we at a tipping point in this?

I'm curious if there is a general consensus, or a growing feeling out there that resellers and gougers and some ethically reprehensible collectors have caused serious harm to this hobby. While a market crash would undoubtedly drive prices back down again (which would be great), it also risks making some titles that much harder to find.

4

Marketplace / Re: Parts pile, and other stuff ready to go.

« on: May 21, 2015, 06:10:20 pm »

If the Chrono Trigger case+ manual is available, then I'd like to get it for completing my loose cart.

The manual is included and it's in pretty solid shape, sans a sticker on the back--on the plastic, not the paper.

Make me an offer, sir.

5

Marketplace / Re: Parts pile, and other stuff ready to go.

« on: May 21, 2015, 09:45:25 am »

If the Chrono Trigger case+ manual is available, then I'd like to get it for completing my loose cart.

I'll check tonight when I get home and get back to you.  Don't remember if the manual is in there.

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Marketplace / Re: Parts pile, and other stuff ready to go.

« on: May 21, 2015, 09:44:47 am »

Interested in the Game Gear and Telstar. Possibly the 2600, but I already have 3 of them. Not sure how much I want 4.

I fired up the broken Game Gear once and as I recall, it does work.  Just not the screen.  Have not tested the Telstar as I do not have a TV old enough.  They actually need a TV with horizontal and vertical hold knobs still on them.  Like cavemen used.

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Marketplace / Re: Parts pile, and other stuff ready to go.

« on: May 21, 2015, 09:43:38 am »

CE edition of ME3 is awful tempting. XD Mostly just curious, what kind of price range are you looking for on that?

Even though someone already asked about the DS boxes, just curious if you have any Shin Megami Tensei ones, specifically.

Don't worry, I'm sure everything will find a good home lol. XD One of my favorite things about VG is the marketplace; nice to be able to find some good deals here. Just make sure you aren't getting rid of anything  you'll want later. o.o;;;

I don't recall any SMT games in that DS case pile.  I'm not home right now, but I can double check tonight.  That CE Mass Effect 3, I might let go for $40 plus shipping, as that seems to be about it's average online.

8

Marketplace / Re: Parts pile, and other stuff ready to go.

« on: May 17, 2015, 06:40:19 pm »

If you are getting rid of the DS game boxes, I would be interested in the whole lot. I gotta check this week on my funds, but I do believe I can.

I'll have to see what kind of USPS box they require.  I may keep one or two, but have to go through them first. 

Highlights:

Lots of Pokemon.
Lots of Nintendogs.
Lots of Star Wars, Force Unleashed, Battlefront, Clone Wars.
Chrono Trigger.
Lego Star Wars.
Castlevania: Order of Ecclesia.
Mortal Kombat Ultimate
Dragon Quest VI.
The World Ends with You.
Betty Boop.  Not really a highlight, but it's in there.

These are all North American with ESRB ratings.  If it's in that list, I will not keep it.

9

Marketplace / Parts pile, and other stuff ready to go.

« on: May 17, 2015, 06:12:11 pm »

Hello folks.

Given recent events in my life (girlfriend leaving), I now have to re-evaluate my hobbies and what I can afford now that I have way more bills to cover.  I may update this list, but before this stuff just ends up in Best Buy's recycle bins, or dropped off at a Goodwill, I figured I'd see if there are any interested parties.

Thus far:

• Original Xbox -- works, but wonky.
• Original Xbox -- has been dismantled, likely just good for parts
• Sega Game Gear -- bad screen
• Playstation -- Original model. Not sure if it works. Last I checked, it did, but it may not.
• Atari 2600 -- Original 4-switch model. No idea if it works, one controller port broken.
• Coleco Telstar -- No idea if it works. The AV switch has a missing connector.
• Splatterhouse - Terror Mask.  This was a pre-order bonus from GameStop for the Splatterhouse revamp on X360/PS3. Due to GameStop's incompetence, I ended up with 2.  Still in it's box.
• Dishonored Deck of Tarot cards.  I have two of these, both unopened.
• Nintendo DS game cases--These are just game cases, some with manuals, all with some cover art.  A wide variety.  These are a hold-over from when I worked at GameStop.  GameStop, as you may know, no longer sells used DS games with cases.  When traded in, they just throw them away.  I saved these.  According to my son who just counted them, there are 107 cases.  Several Nintendogs, several Star Wars, a rather large variety.  I would probably let this entire pile go for $5 plus shipping. Many of them are in great shape, and on at least 3 or 4 occasions, I have purchased a used DS game sans case, and have been able to get a case from this collection.
• Mass Effect 3 Collector's Edition for Xbox 360.  I pre-ordered it late, and from two places hoping to get just one (didn't think I would).  Instead I have two.  The unopened one is up for grabs.  Make me an offer I can't refuse--plus shipping!
• A Nintendo DS Lite with L & R buttons that stopped working after it was dropped on concrete half a dozen times.  I did not do that on purpose.

I may add to this, but not sure yet.  Figured I'd try here first.  I think, at most, I'd let this stuff go for $2 plus shipping (unless noted), and I'd use USPS flat rate shipping containers.  Whichever will hold that monstrous old Xbox or whatever.

If nothing else, within a week I'm going to drop them off at one of the aforementioned locales and just be done with them.  I should be able to do this via Paypal, which I'll figure out if anyone is interested. 

The thing is, I'm not asking for much here, and would just like this stuff to go to another collector than to rot away on a dusty Goodwill shelf, or to be dismantled via Best Buy's electronics recycling program.  This is step one.  I'm building up to getting rid of a lot more stuff.  I cleaned out a huge pile of DVDs and all my vinyl today as well, and a stack of old heavy metal VHS tapes.  Like I said, I may have to scale back this otherwise exciting hobby, and if I end up needing to move, better to have less stuff than too much to carry.

Also, if there's something you're looking for that's on my collection list, I may now be totally willing to part with it. 

10

General / Re: May 2015 - Recently Added to Collection/Recently Purchased

« on: May 03, 2015, 02:27:05 pm »

Some slim pickings over a long-touted "100-mile garage sale."  It's a series of towns over the Minnesota and Wisconsin borders that do garage sales over the same weekend.  It varies greatly in what can be found there.

This year: 

Dante's Inferno
Final Fantasy Tactics: War of the Lions
Star Wars Battlefront: Elite Squadron
All for the PSP, $1 a piece.

Resident Evil: Code: Veronica X (RE 5th Anniversary Edition) version. (PS2)
Chakan with case and manual (Genesis)
Congo Bongo with manual (2600)
Tapper with manual (2600)

These were from a dealer who'd set up a shop in a parking lot during the weekend.

11

Modern Video Games / Re: Nintendo Direct 4-1-15

« on: April 23, 2015, 11:55:08 am »

I thought the only real highlight was Fatal Frame coming to North America.  Shin Megami X Fire Emblem looks... The exact opposite of what I expected given the last two games in those franchises.  My interest is waning. 

There were no new game announcements and only DLC information for previously-released games.  It's pretty clear that they are already beginning to wind down internal development on Wii U to move internal teams over to NX development.  I think E3 will reveal the last "new" Wii U games for pretty much the remainder of the console's life, it will include Retro's new game, but very few overall games.

Concerning NX, the cat's out of the bag already.  They need to hurry up and get that machine completed and finished and released by November 2016.

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Modern Video Games / Re: The Nintendo "NX"

« on: April 23, 2015, 11:48:56 am »

It's just an unfortunate reality that even though the Wii U can have great looking games and is capable of decent (though not as good graphically) ports of PS4 and 'bone titles, 3rd parties don't see it being worthwhile. 

Nintendo might as well face it that the sales of Wii were an anomaly.  They aren't going to magically reclaim those glory days.  They can either buckle down on their next console and fall in line with what the other two are doing, or they can continue to march to the beat of their own drum and see where they end up.  For all the "Nintendo apologists" you hear from, talking about how Nintendo is fine, they make money, they don't need to change, etc....it's obvious Nintendo themselves feel they need to change.  It's evident in their announcements.  It's evident by them deciding to entice mobile phone/tablet users to get into the Nintendo ecosystem with the hopes they buy a Nintendo system by making mobile apps. 

They are not making these changes because a bunch of armchair internet analysts are saying they need to do blah, blah, blah.  They are changing because they see the writing on the proverbial wall and realize that the business model they have so strictly adhered to is seeing depreciating returns. 

The Wii U isn't worthwhile to 3rd parties.  It can't handle next-gen and upcoming game engines (like Unreal 4), it has no harddrive to store or install bigger titles, and it's lacking the online infrastructure or user accounts necessary to support so many modern games. 

I think you're absolutely right that the Wii was an anomaly, and that Nintendo doesn't understand that.  I think the mobile deal with DeNA is their first step to realizing that there is more money in going software-only for them than in wasting time making hardware that just confuses and annoys the vast majority of the gaming public.

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Modern Video Games / Re: The Nintendo "NX"

« on: April 23, 2015, 11:37:48 am »

Here are my quick 2 cents on this:

NX is a new console that will initially be released as a "third tier" the way the DS was.  If successful, the Wii U and/or the 3DS (if it is indeed the integrated console of legend) will be quietly and quickly retired within a year.

It will launch in November 2016, following the timetable of announcement-to-release of most recent Nintendo hardware, particularly the Wii U and 3DS, which had less than 18 months before announcement and release.

It will not carry the Wii moniker, which has been badly tarnished by the Wii U.

It will not have a GamePad-like controller, as the GamePad has largely failed to live up to it's promises, and has been quite frequently noted as a thorn in the side of the console actually preventing sales.

I would not be surprised if Zelda U became Zelda NX, or pulled a cross-platform release like Twilight Princess.

I also think it's extremely important to launch no later than 2016--and Iwata has made mention of "returning to Nintendo-like profits" by the end of the fiscal year ending March 2017, which likely indicates a 2016 release.  Primarily because the Wii U is already moving into it's end-of-cycle decline like the N64, GameCube, and Wii during their final two years on the market and the total lack of 3rd party support supports the hypothesis of "end of cycle" decline.

The big problem, however, is that the Steam Machines are launching this year, which means Nintendo will be launching in the face of three strong competitors, two of whom (PS4 and XBO) will be planted firmly in their peak years (2016~2018), which means it will be extremely difficult for Nintendo to even be noticed in this crowd, particularly when they are barely registering to consumers now as it is.   

14

General / Re: Recently completed/finished

« on: April 23, 2015, 11:28:09 am »

The Walking Dead (Telltale) for the Vita.  Finished it over the weekend.

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General / Re: Collection Plateau...anybody experience this?

« on: April 23, 2015, 09:15:21 am »

I haven't reached the plateau yet.  Though I'm in a general lull where I'm more focused on my other expensive hobby: Transformers.  The new Combiner Wars figures are just too damn cool to ignore.  I'm waiting for something to "re-spark" my drive to collect games.  Maybe a good garage sale will strike me in May.  There's an event in Minnesota and Wisconsin known as the "100-mile garage sale" that once yielded a black Sega Sports Dreamcast, 2 controllers, 2 VMUs, and 15 games for... $5.  That is not a typo.