Will Amiibo beat Spyro Skylanders/DInfinity first year?

[Jakandsig]

Nintendo released that 5.7 million Amiibos sold, which I'm assuming is to consumers. That's actually not really..Good when you look at it a certain way but this was the holiday season and it did come out within that time so the real question is if there is momentum. It does show however, that people are buying them outside of the WiiU/3DS market (excluding scalps) so I mean it won't do much to cover any financial holes but it shows that the market will expand a bit beyond the Nintendo ecosystem which COULD make Amiibos more of a player.

For comparison, Skylanders did 15 million in the holiday season as a new IP (well technically it was a Spyro game before it became a new Ip but ehh)

Infinity did 7 million or so in the first holiday season.

So the actual question is will it be able to beat Skylanders or/ad Disney infinity's first year?

Well looks look at the data we have.

Amiibo came out in November 21st and sold 5.7 million as of a few days ago. That will track technically as 3 months of sales, but of course we will say 2 months.

Amiibo has slowed down since than obviously, but i think it's possible to be around 6.5 million at start of march. If we keep a flat rate of 500,000 a month until November 1st, which is pretty optimistic, Amiibo could be at 10.2 million. I don't expect another big holiday rush but still good so 13.5 million by end of 2015.

Disney Infinity around feb sold 3 million starter packs, so that's 9 million figures alone. Throw in an estimate for other figures and I see around 12 million, as sales did slow and 2.0 was released in the holiday season, but that doesn't really matter since the 1st year ended in august, so I would think maybe at least another 500k starter packs, which would put it at 13.5 million, at other figures being sold at the time I can see 15 million in the first year. 17 being the highest since we don't know how many starter packs have really been since the 3 million announcement, but we do know sales slowed.

Skylanders sold 20 million in only 3 months so first year would probably be 40-45 million give or take. 

I think Amiibo may have a chance against Infinity for the first year. Though it will have to remain at least around and frequently above 500k a month. Unless they actually double/sell 1 million the last holiday season.

[kamikazekeeg]

Don't really see why it will, the Wii U is a much smaller market than what Skylander and Infinity released on.

[tpugmire]

The difference is that while Skylanders and Disney Infinity have larger install bases, Amiibo has almost 30 years of nostalgia in their favor.   Obviously, Disney has that going for them as well, but there is a lot more Disney merchandise out there than Nintendo. I know a lot of people are buying them who don't have a Wii U or 3DS, but just like the look of them. Whether or not it will make enough of an impact to beat the other two is unknown, but it could be a factor.

[devancowan]

The difference is that while Skylanders and Disney Infinity have larger install bases, Amiibo has almost 30 years of nostalgia in their favor.   Obviously, Disney has that going for them as well, but there is a lot more Disney merchandise out there than Nintendo. I know a lot of people are buying them who don't have a Wii U or 3DS, but just like the look of them. Whether or not it will make enough of an impact to beat the other two is unknown, but it could be a factor.

I buy them and I don't have a WiiU. I feel as though they could sell more if nintendo actually made enough. I don't know much about Skylanders and Infinity but it seems like theres always loads of those in the store and no one buys them. I could be completely wrong but thats the way I see it.

[bikingjahuty]

I think one huge thing that has probably put a stall on sales figures for the Amiibo is Nintendo's lack of preparation in meeting the demand these things have had. Had they built up a much bigger stock before launching these and getting ahead of the curve, I wouldn't be surprised to see an additional 2-million Amiibos sold. In the end, Nintendo has become their own worst enemy is staying competitive. The fans have been burned badly by their lack of foresight as well.