Is the collecting bubble shifting?

[burningdoom]

Every year this topic comes up, and every year the prices go up.

Atari dropped like a rock.

I don't recall Atari 2600 EVER being expensive to collect for, far back into the 90s even. (Except for the rare exceptions, of course, like Chuck Wagon.) I always remember seeing Atari 2600 carts going for under $5 a piece.

About 10 years ago Atari games were desirable because they were in their bubble.

Maybe in your area. Here in CA they've always been bottom-dollar games.

One of our big local spots, BogBean Books & Music, always had them for $2 a piece, regardless of the game. And thrift shops had em for not much more.

[ignition365]

Every year this topic comes up, and every year the prices go up.

Atari dropped like a rock.

I don't recall Atari 2600 EVER being expensive to collect for, far back into the 90s even. (Except for the rare exceptions, of course, like Chuck Wagon.) I always remember seeing Atari 2600 carts going for under $5 a piece.

About 10 years ago Atari games were desirable because they were in their bubble.

Maybe in your area. Here in CA they've always been bottom-dollar games.

One of our big local spots, BogBean Books & Music, always had them for $2 a piece, regardless of the game. And thrift shops had em for not much more.

I don't know.  I do recall the games being more than that and the systems themselves going for much more than they go for these days.  BUT, I know that CA had the highest supply of Atari games back in the day because that's where Atari was, so that might contribute to that.

[bikingjahuty]

Every year this topic comes up, and every year the prices go up.

Atari dropped like a rock.

I don't recall Atari 2600 EVER being expensive to collect for, far back into the 90s even. (Except for the rare exceptions, of course, like Chuck Wagon.) I always remember seeing Atari 2600 carts going for under $5 a piece.

You have to keep in mind the context which Atari was big though. Atari collecting was big from the late 90s until the mid-2000s, which was also a time where many people still did not have the internet, nor were there any Smart phones for people to look shit up or download apps that told them what people were paying for games. Because of this prices never got outrageous like they have on rarer NES and SNES games. There was certainly perceived rarity which was sometimes justified and sometimes not. Games like Swordquest Waterworld used to go for around $200 or more for just the cart because there was a lot of speculation around how rare it really was because no one truly knew. This still happens today, but when there are 30 of a supposed rare game up on ebay at any given time it makes you put into question how rare it really is.


But he is right, Atari was once huge and it eventually plummeted to where now the only games that have held their value or increased are those extremely rare carts or games that are rare enough to where there will always be a few people looking for them. I believe someday all console libraries will see this same thing happen.

[burningdoom]

I still don't agree. I completely remember even Toys R US having brand-new Atari 2600 games filling bargain bins while the NES and Genesis were the top-dollar games.

I can't remember a time when Atari 2600 games weren't plentiful and cheap, dating back before the 90s that you pointed out. (I wasn't old enough to remember when they were the brand-new, state of the art system, I'm sure they were expensive then.)

I did mention "exceptions" for the rare games, though. That's true for any system.

[necrosexual]

well i'm a, uh, neo-collector? i only mainly collect for the gen of xbox/ps2 and above (not gcn though, god bless the prices of gcn games, jfc)
right now i can safely say the costs of games for these consoles isn't going up yet, but the niche titles may be. i'm not 100% sure. while you can find plenty of good niche titles for $5-10 at a gamestop, the price creep is mostly online.

i don't know how big 'collecting' is here though. i really don't bother browsing for older titles (and gcn, ugh) because i know the prices are, nine times out of ten, way, way, way out of my reach.
xbox is still dirt-cheap to collect for tho. ps2 has been creeping up for about 3 years now. ps3 games have remained steadily costlier than their 360 peers (likely because of case/disc sturdiness) and i never see that changing... but i'm about to round off my ps3 and my 360 collection will be forever small. my xbox collection will be pretty small, as well. vita is going to see terrifying price markups i bet in the future (finding a copy of demon gaze or stranger of sword city in the wild is already almost hair-pulling in how difficult it can be... and my area is flooded with gamestops) so i'll move there asap.

anyway, i can see a lot of my age peers (early 20s) picking the hobby up for gcn (driving the prices up to horrifying levels, they're already expensive) and n64/ps1. maybe snes/genesis a bit as well. and a lot of people get into the hobby in mid- or late-teens, so those teenagers who work part time and have 100% disposable income are likely jumping in and buying the games of their childhood, thus the shift. the older gen has been picking up games for a decade or more now, i'll hit a decade in about a year and a half... those kids are just now jumping in and their childhood was maybe ps1/n64 and mostly ps2/gcn(/xbox, but not as frequently). i know a guy who is 18 or so right now, he's grabbing gcn games as he finds them. he's in australia, tho, so not any competition for me.

[atarileaf]

Dirt cheap atari games were always dirt cheap but some of the mid range rarity games like say your Tapper's, Spy Hunter, or Pengo for example used to go for a lot more than they currently are. They were $50 - $60 games or more and now are around $25 to $30.

As for the rest, it's hard for me to personally gauge as EVERYTHING from the NES forward is still sky high around my area.

[dreama1]

Conspiracy theories.  Why is it all these retro collectors on youtube are spreading the same narrative. Why has not a single person took the opposite stance? or everyone just follows the crowd these days? I don't believe any bubble will pop, and there's no reason why it should. They probably want people to sell off their collections so they can goyim them.

[bikingjahuty]

Conspiracy theories.  Why is it all these retro collectors on youtube are spreading the same narrative. Why has not a single person took the opposite stance? or everyone just follows the crowd these days? I don't believe any bubble will pop, and there's no reason why it should. They probably want people to sell off their collections so they can goyim them.

While I will not deny I'd love to see all games, retro and modern drop in price significantly for everyone due to decreased demand, I've seen enough in this hobby after being in it for nearly a decade (started collecting in 2008) that leads me to believe there is a bubble and it will burst eventually. Actually, it would be more accurate to say it will likely deflate gradually as I'm seeing now with many NES, SNES, and Genesis titles. Games like Punch Out, Metroid, and your standard fare must have titles have been showing up a lot more in my area and I've noticed that many of them are selling for slightly less then they were a year ago. Games like Wild Guns, EVO, and Little Samson are still ungodly expensive and will probably always be due to their rarity, but I can see them dipping in value over time.

Like I mentioned, I've also seen a lot of collectors, online and locally leave the hobby for many different reasons and because of that supply is returning to the market, meaning prices will go down. I also know many collectors that are still in the hobby, but they are no longer after the common and uncommon titles for specific consoles, meaning that it one less collector out of the market for a game like Super Mario 64 or Mario Kart.

And also, every collecting fad over the past 25 years has followed the same cycle; people in their mid-20s to early 40s get careers, have more disposable income and want a piece of their past, creating a market of collectibles. This exact same thing happened with vintage toys, comics, sports cards, Atari, and other items as well. Eventually as these people took on more responsibilities (kids, car payments, mortgage, ect) the time and money to indulge these hobbies diminished, leading collectors to leave their once beloved hobby, often selling what they had acquired. Eventually these hobbies became less and less popular until supply outpaced demand and prices dropped, sometimes significantly.

I do not know when precisely, but I expect at least classic Nintendo collecting to gradually burn out more and more over the next 5-year until games like Contra and Punch Out, hell, even games like Ninja Gaiden 3 go for at least 50% less than what they currently sell. Even games like Little Samson I can see dropping to around $500 by this time. Some might see this as a bold prediction, but as stated above, we've seen these collecting fads before and we all know how they end.

[Warmsignal]

Not that I follow that closely anymore, but from what I've noticed, it seems like sales of NES games have been decreasing steadily. The prices? Not so much. I've actually noticed a few recent price spikes on obscure relatively uncommon games like Rad Gravity, WURM, and Zen which until this year were kinda cheap games that nobody cared about. If that kinda stuff is still happening, which it is, then I say no to any popping speculation. Sadly. SNES seems to remain as the most popular console to collect for currently.

Is a bubble developing across later platforms? Probably, it wouldn't surprise me. The funny thing is PS1 was the only console to decrease in value after the collecting craze began, and now it's going back up? N64 I could see that happening, thought it already happened.

My comment on Atari 2600 is - I think it's a generational thing. I think there was probably a group of people who grew up on Atari, at maybe just the right age where they grew tired of video games by the time NES came around. Obviously not all of them, but I've met plenty of people who fondly remember Atari, but never got into Nintendo or Sega or anything that followed. They might have been responsible for the Atari bubble that eventually did pop. I don't know if I'd expect to see the same thing among the groups who fondly remember the NES, among many other consoles they also played later on down the line - the multiple generation console game collectors, of which there are tons now. They're a bit of a different story. Almost like gens 3 - current are all their baby, and I don't see them severing the love for any one console. That's my thought, anyway.

[dreama1]

Conspiracy theories.  Why is it all these retro collectors on youtube are spreading the same narrative. Why has not a single person took the opposite stance? or everyone just follows the crowd these days? I don't believe any bubble will pop, and there's no reason why it should. They probably want people to sell off their collections so they can goyim them.

While I will not deny I'd love to see all games, retro and modern drop in price significantly for everyone due to decreased demand, I've seen enough in this hobby after being in it for nearly a decade (started collecting in 2008) that leads me to believe there is a bubble and it will burst eventually. Actually, it would be more accurate to say it will likely deflate gradually as I'm seeing now with many NES, SNES, and Genesis titles. Games like Punch Out, Metroid, and your standard fare must have titles have been showing up a lot more in my area and I've noticed that many of them are selling for slightly less then they were a year ago. Games like Wild Guns, EVO, and Little Samson are still ungodly expensive and will probably always be due to their rarity, but I can see them dipping in value over time.

Like I mentioned, I've also seen a lot of collectors, online and locally leave the hobby for many different reasons and because of that supply is returning to the market, meaning prices will go down. I also know many collectors that are still in the hobby, but they are no longer after the common and uncommon titles for specific consoles, meaning that it one less collector out of the market for a game like Super Mario 64 or Mario Kart.

And also, every collecting fad over the past 25 years has followed the same cycle; people in their mid-20s to early 40s get careers, have more disposable income and want a piece of their past, creating a market of collectibles. This exact same thing happened with vintage toys, comics, sports cards, Atari, and other items as well. Eventually as these people took on more responsibilities (kids, car payments, mortgage, ect) the time and money to indulge these hobbies diminished, leading collectors to leave their once beloved hobby, often selling what they had acquired. Eventually these hobbies became less and less popular until supply outpaced demand and prices dropped, sometimes significantly.

I do not know when precisely, but I expect at least classic Nintendo collecting to gradually burn out more and more over the next 5-year until games like Contra and Punch Out, hell, even games like Ninja Gaiden 3 go for at least 50% less than what they currently sell. Even games like Little Samson I can see dropping to around $500 by this time. Some might see this as a bold prediction, but as stated above, we've seen these collecting fads before and we all know how they end.

I think gaming is still a relatively young industry and still growing. It's becoming very trendy and now even a pop culture thing. In fact it's a way life; we are what we love. Meaning also more people are joining the hobby everyday. And at least a good number of them are universal gamers. They'll play on any system in history, and chances are likely they won't own a single retro system. Of course gravitation exists as he said the people in their 20s with income are going back to the systems of their childhood thus a influx. But the universal gamer is also a separate entity in all this. They keep things at a certain flesh-hold.

I think this because I saw a young boy awhile ago who was very passionate about the atari 2600 for some reason yet had no exposure. Be it probably rare thing. The Atari generation isn't being wiped out or pushed off into the night like a stranger to be forgotten, it still has it's roots. And the roots of Nintendo even deeper than Atari ever managed. For the roots to disappear then a bubble would pop, but I don't think it ever will. I believe there will always be new passionate gamers who universally take interest in all gaming consoles. Thus the roots will always be strong. Gaming just like any culture is defined by it's history, and it's roots. And people will always go back to their roots be them old or young.

Lastly I made a discussion a while ago how long would cartridges or discs last? And well even the consoles. The comments were.. well rather grim to say the least. Retro games are disappearing every day (it's sounding like a humanitarian crisis when I say it like this) yet there's more and more people wanting to experience the golden era's of gaming, and less copies available everyday, and there will be a day not just because they have been bought up but because they don't exist anymore. I don't think we even need to wait a century for that to happen. We get to the view the tragedy in our lifetime likely. 20-50 years from now and the Atari gamers will be like the last veterans from the war of the states or something. 

[Warmsignal]

I've heard a few instances of youngsters heavily into this stuff, but TBH the vast majority are dudes in their mid 20s to late 30s as far as those collecting everything from NES forward. I don't know if I'd say this is something that kids are going to pick up and feel the same about as the older crowd. Sure, they might like the games. They'll appreciate the value of a classic. Maybe they'll emulate, or some other more convenient and modern method of playing them. But going as far as to collect hundreds of original cartridges and CDs of games they've mostly never heard of that were made long before they were born? I kinda doubt it. There are plenty of late adopters to the trend, but they mostly fit the profile you'd expect.

I'm sticking to the theory that having any affinity for physical media, or classic game consoles cuts off at a certain point in time. Probably around the time of those who first played games during the 6th gen, maybe 7th. Kids who are about 10-15 years old now, probably aren't going to be nearly as interested in retro collecting, and will probably think we're crazy for not just downloading, or more better yet streaming whatever games we want to play.

I also have to agree with Biking on notion that eventually, common titles should loose steam because everyone who wants one will have it. If prices ever decide to come down, it will probably be commons and popular games first.

[dreama1]

Nintendo are moving onto their 7th generation of consoles. There's never been cheap Nintendo games for more than a generation transition on any of these 6 systems. Atari was always worth Ugandan toilet paper after the crash.

[dreama1]

Nintendo are moving onto their 7th generation of consoles. There's never been cheap Nintendo games for more than a generation transition on any of these 6 systems. Atari was always worth Ugandan toilet paper after the crash. When is the sky suppose to crack and fall down.

[dreama1]

Nintendo are moving onto their 7th generation of consoles. There's never been cheap Nintendo games for more than a generation transition on any of these 6 systems. Atari was always worth Ugandan toilet paper after the crash. When is the sky suppose to crack and fall down.

[Warmsignal]

Is Ugandan toilet paper worth significantly less than toilet paper elsewhere? AFAIK they don't just give it away. You'd think it would be higher than usual given that Uganda is not a major player in the production of TP.