I heard retro game prices have peaked

[emporerdragon]

The baseball card market bottoming out in the late 80s is a perfect example.

That's my first thought too. And like with baseball cards during the crash, we're seeing a mass surplus of product happening right now, making both the current and previous generation not very valuable for collecting outside of select titles.

[xsuicidesn0wmanx]

Wish this were actually true. The items I've been watching simply keep going up. I'd love to get a complete Super System Card 3.0 for the TGCD for $150 like it used to be, but the resellers have jacked the price up to $300-400 these days.

Today I just focus on the consoles that are getting donated the most, PS2, PSP, PS3 and Wii. I can find most games on those systems for $5-10 these days, anything older than that the resellers have jacked to unreasonable prices.

[sworddude]

I'm really wondering how it would impact ps3 and xbox 360 CE even the very rare ones wich go for insane amounts.

Seems less memorable to me since there are many rereleases and multiple Ce of pretty much every game.

Those would have zero value for sure after allot less time have passed if you would ask me. I'm petty sure people would be giving those away at some point.

on a realistic note I think prices will or rise/drop slighlty or stay quite steady in the future.

Pre 2010 era would be pretty insane in just 8 years. Especially since many 2D sega saturn and ps1 games are very simular to those of snes etc. Would also mean that gamecube ps1 sega saturn dreamcast etc would drop allot.

Collectibles that did die.

Atari realisticly is pretty crap even the so called good games do not entertain many people, baseball cards are just there to look at why collect those if you can collect real baseball sports memorabilia, Beanie babies I have no idea how people get into those, elvis collectibles wich was meant for collecting only.

We'll see in the future what happens, would be pretty sweet to get titles in cib shape as hagane wild guns megaman x3 etc Neo geo aes should also drop if that would be the case but I don't see it happening These games are more fun than those other very niche collectibles that died out and allot bigger. I can imagine some waves going up and down but not in ridiculous huge movements.

It can happen but a huge movement in 8 just years seems to good to be true. Obviously for some games this can apply like eartbound but as a whole it seems a bit much.

We'll see in the near future what will happen if Bikinghatjun statement could come out in 8 years

[bikingjahuty]

The craze has already been in full swing since 2013 so it is now 4-years in. That is a lot of time to go to thrift stores, flea markets, ebay, and the like to get what you want. Very few of us are The Flea and literally collect everything. If we were than 30-years might be a realistic time table for this all to end. And whether pre-2010 prices will happen is to be seen, but it surely will not happen on everything. Things like Little Samson, Hagane, and Sculptors Cut will never go back to what they used to be worth, but I can honestly see them losing at least half their value in 8-years.

And even though you do not see the value in things like baseball cards, Beanie Babies or Atari games does not mean that others can't. I have no idea how old you are, but assuming you are in your 20s or 30s, you can appreciate things like SNES or Saturn games. Likewise someone who grew up in the 50s will have a easier time getting into baseball cards because that was a big thing back then. Atari collecting was popular in the late 90s to mid 2000s because that age group was in their 20s and early 30s at the time, and it died out in less than a decade.

[sworddude]

The craze has already been in full swing since 2013 so it is now 4-years in. That is a lot of time to go to thrift stores, flea markets, ebay, and the like to get what you want. Very few of us are The Flea and literally collect everything. If we were than 30-years might be a realistic time table for this all to end. And whether pre-2010 prices will happen is to be seen, but it surely will not happen on everything. Things like Little Samson, Hagane, and Sculptors Cut will never go back to what they used to be worth, but I can honestly see them losing at least half their value in 8-years.

And even though you do not see the value in things like baseball cards, Beanie Babies or Atari games does not mean that others can't. I have no idea how old you are, but assuming you are in your 20s or 30s, you can appreciate things like SNES or Saturn games. Likewise someone who grew up in the 50s will have a easier time getting into baseball cards because that was a big thing back then. Atari collecting was popular in the late 90s to mid 2000s because that age group was in their 20s and early 30s at the time, and it died out in less than a decade.

I do see why people appreciate them for example atari games.  It's not for me gameplay wise.

Than again the NES is only 8 years younger than the atari 2600 why is there no nes crash yet. Surely many nes collectors are in the same age group as the atari collectors back than?  Some years ago already actually. The same thing should happen however nes games are actually a bit better than the true basics wich is why the crash hasn't happen yet. Atari games are less fun than nes games. They are actually starting to look like something with genuinly good games. Even new 8 bit games are made since there are people who prefer these kind of games and the art style for them games.

Why are so few people collecting for like colecovision, and all those other atari like systems because they are super basic in sound and grapics. Usually for the people that have these systems with some games It's more as a collectors piece wich is barely used at all.

Atari is almost pure nostalgia while nes onwards is actually pretty solid attracting also other people without nostalgia. Has nice music and the grapics look nice especially in some games with it's own 8 bit style. I can't say the same thing for atari.

I grew up in the 16 bit era yet I do find master system and nes games fun to play because they have something. atari however is not that interesting I do see why people appreciate it but I can't get into these games.

One can appreciate things but not all things that are appreciated should be considered fun by everyone. Obviously the same thing can be said for the golden 16 bit era but at the very least it is allot more solid and a large group of people pay good money in most cases for gameplay. Obviously a collector pays more for cib stuff and the rarities but also players have to pay allot for just cart only or games with missing pieces. The big money in atari was mainly reserverd for the games wich were really rare not really for gameplay. obviously games like pacman had value in the craze but overall it was more for collectability with the high ticket items.

Most of the good games on atari were not rare at all so i'm pretty sure for most players money wasn't an issue at all especially lose cart collectors unless you were going for a full set and or rarities wich is pretty impossible for atari.

i'm not saying that a crash will never happen, but the nes crash should have happened by now quite some years ago if were going with your theory.

[bikingjahuty]

The craze has already been in full swing since 2013 so it is now 4-years in. That is a lot of time to go to thrift stores, flea markets, ebay, and the like to get what you want. Very few of us are The Flea and literally collect everything. If we were than 30-years might be a realistic time table for this all to end. And whether pre-2010 prices will happen is to be seen, but it surely will not happen on everything. Things like Little Samson, Hagane, and Sculptors Cut will never go back to what they used to be worth, but I can honestly see them losing at least half their value in 8-years.

And even though you do not see the value in things like baseball cards, Beanie Babies or Atari games does not mean that others can't. I have no idea how old you are, but assuming you are in your 20s or 30s, you can appreciate things like SNES or Saturn games. Likewise someone who grew up in the 50s will have a easier time getting into baseball cards because that was a big thing back then. Atari collecting was popular in the late 90s to mid 2000s because that age group was in their 20s and early 30s at the time, and it died out in less than a decade.

I do see why people appreciate them for example atari games.  It's not for me gameplay wise.

Than again the NES is only 8 years younger than the atari 2600 why is there no nes crash yet. Surely many nes collectors are in the same age group as the atari collectors back than?  Some years ago already actually. The same thing should happen however nes games are actually a bit better than the true basics wich is why the crash hasn't happen yet. Atari games are less fun than nes games. They are actually starting to look like something with genuinly good games. Even new 8 bit games are made since there are people who prefer these kind of games and the art style for them games.

Why are so few people collecting for like colecovision, and all those other atari like systems because they are super basic in sound and grapics. Usually for the people that have these systems with some games It's more as a collectors piece wich is barely used at all.

Atari is almost pure nostalgia while nes onwards is actually pretty solid attracting also other people without nostalgia. Has nice music and the grapics look nice especially in some games with it's own 8 bit style. I can't say the same thing for atari.

I grew up in the 16 bit era yet I do find master system and nes games fun to play because they have something. atari however is not that interesting I do see why people appreciate it but I can't get into these games.

One can appreciate things but not all things that are appreciated should be considered fun by everyone. Obviously the same thing can be said for the golden 16 bit era but at the very least it is allot more solid and a large group of people pay good money in most cases for gameplay. Obviously a collector pays more for cib stuff and the rarities but also players have to pay allot for just cart only or games with missing pieces. The big money in atari was mainly reserverd for the games wich were really rare not really for gameplay. obviously games like pacman had value in the craze but overall it was more for collectability with the high ticket items.

Most of the good games on atari were not rare at all so i'm pretty sure for most players money wasn't an issue at all especially lose cart collectors unless you were going for a full set and or rarities wich is pretty impossible for atari.

i'm not saying that a crash will never happen, but the nes crash should have happened by now quite some years ago if were going with your theory.

NES was not in full blown pandemonium until the late 80s. Sure, people owned one as early as 85 when it came out, but he mainstream didn't really latch onto it until around 88 or 89. But at this point I'm splitting hairs a bit. The main point is that people born as early as the mid 70s and as late as the mid-90s are the ones fueling the collecting craze, which started about the same time for all post 2600 consoles up to probably PS2. So even though it did come out only a few years after the hayday of Atari, it wasn't widely collected for until 2013, along with most other consoles of the 1990s.

Another trend I've noticed is how people have been jumping from one console to the next once they are satisfied collecting for the console they started with. A lot of NES collectors became SNES collectors when they could not longer obtain certain NES titles, or maybe they finished collecting for it. Then the SNES crowd jumped to Genesis, which then jumped to Saturn, and so on, and so on. However, at this point, there is not a mainstream console released up to the PS3/Wii/360 that has not seen a significant bump in interest from collectors, save maybe the OG XBOX (which baffles me since it has a very good library). So unless a bunch of people jump on board heavily with PS2 collecting or move onto the 7th gen, I don't see collecting expanding much more.

I truly believe that video game collecting has hit a wall and it'll only become less popular, and for the most part less expensive from here on out. I've seen too many correlations for me to believe it is a coincidence or that this collecting trend will last over a decade while none of the others have. Sure, many NES games are still fun to play, but so are reading comics, which had a huge collecting scene in the 90s. On top of that, this assumes that most collectors collect to play, which from what I've seen in person and online is the exception and not the rule. Most video game collectors collect to scratch the itch of nostalgia that becomes harder and harder to satisfy the more games you collect and the deeper you get into the hobby. Eventually, spending nearly a grand on a CIB gem on the NES loses its value. A ton of games sitting on your shelf eventually lose their meaning or at least do not have the same positive reinforcement they did when you first started. Also, as I said, people change as they get older and adopt responsibilities that make being a hardcore collector less achievable financially and logistically.

[scoobs22]

I heard retro game prices have peaked, and are beginning a slow decline as of 2016/2017. Examples include earthbound and wild guns. Any truth to this?

These games are no longer being produced. As long as there is demand for these products with a static supply, prices will trend upward over the long term. Econ 101.

That's not necessarily true when it comes to collectibles, though. Collector market bubbles burst, and interest rises and fades with trends and changing generations.

The baseball card market bottoming out in the late 80s is a perfect example. Or the bubble-burst of the comic collector's market in the 90s.

"As long as there is demand...."

[Warmsignal]

I'd say we're fast approaching the point where many people will stop buying because of the prices. When most consoles start to average $30 - $40 per common/popular game, I can see people finally saying no. If that happens, then things might change.

Fads come and go, so that's another factor. Most of us are generally in the same age range and have been doing this for roughly the same amount of time. A lot of folks will reach a point where the novelty wears off. A lot of us are starting to get a bit older, focusing more on family, career, and whatever trend comes about next because I think this one has just about been done to death. You don't see a lot of tweens and teens getting hardcore into old-school game collecting. So it's gonna happen. Is it there yet? Probably not, but it isn't far off.

[tripredacus]

You cannot take the entire market as a whole. You can only use console to region groupings to determine pricing. For example, I can't compare the market of 2600 US vs Genesis US vs Saturn JP vs SNES NA and have them all the same. It doesn't work. It is true that each console/region goes through trends. Atari 2600 US is well past its peak by now and we will see some other consoles pick up the pace (such as PS1 US) and others fall back down such as SMS.

[Warmsignal]

You cannot take the entire market as a whole. You can only use console to region groupings to determine pricing. For example, I can't compare the market of 2600 US vs Genesis US vs Saturn JP vs SNES NA and have them all the same. It doesn't work. It is true that each console/region goes through trends. Atari 2600 US is well past its peak by now and we will see some other consoles pick up the pace (such as PS1 US) and others fall back down such as SMS.

What about for example SNES NA vs Saturn NA? Saturn was a flop, yet the prices on it are still higher on average than the very nostalgic SNES. PS1 NA was a very popular platform, yet it remains with a lower average of prices. What about more modern platforms with really expensive games like PS2 and GameCube? Even Wii U? That to me is indiciative that you can take them all as a whole. The same people who will pay out big money for a "rare" PS2 game are essentially the same ones collecting SNES. I think most collectors are cross-platform, cross-gen collectors who basically go for most of the mainstream consoles all at once. Everybody is in competition over just about everything, in my view. Hence we've seen averages increase with every platform save 7th gen, since the mid 2000s.

[tripredacus]

What about for example SNES NA vs Saturn NA? Saturn was a flop, yet the prices on it are still higher on average than the very nostalgic SNES. PS1 NA was a very popular platform, yet it remains with a lower average of prices. What about more modern platforms with really expensive games like PS2 and GameCube? Even Wii U? That to me is indiciative that you can take them all as a whole. The same people who will pay out big money for a "rare" PS2 game are essentially the same ones collecting SNES. I think most collectors are cross-platform, cross-gen collectors who basically go for most of the mainstream consoles all at once. Everybody is in competition over just about everything, in my view. Hence we've seen averages increase with every platform save 7th gen, since the mid 2000s.

Saturn prices are high (and have been relatively so for many years) due to the limited supply.
All Nintendo games have a popular markup, and their availability (or supply) does not hinder their values. This covers Gamecube.
PS1 is on the rise. I do not consider PS2 to be "the platform with really expensive games." That is to say all PS2 games are expensive (they are not) as the average PS2 game value might be $2. This is in contrast to NES, where the average game value is much higher.

Of course, there are always "1%" titles of any library that are well above the average or "above average" portion of the valuation spectrum. These types of titles cannot be used for overall valuation of the library.

The problem with lumping everything together is not taking into account that the different platforms fluctuate independently. So if you say you are seeing all game prices, on average, increase, you are not taking into account that Atari 2600 prices have fallen and something else has taken up that slack to make up the difference.

[sworddude]

Well you could lump up all systems with simular types of games.

Atari stone age systems

nes sega 8 bit systems

16 bit systems snes till sega saturn

early to mid 3D systems

dreamcast gamecube xbox till ps2 wii

advanced 3D realistic

ps3 xbox 360 onwards

If a market chances for a certain genre of games it has to have some connection since many consoles share simular types of games that people play for such systems.

[Warmsignal]

What about for example SNES NA vs Saturn NA? Saturn was a flop, yet the prices on it are still higher on average than the very nostalgic SNES. PS1 NA was a very popular platform, yet it remains with a lower average of prices. What about more modern platforms with really expensive games like PS2 and GameCube? Even Wii U? That to me is indiciative that you can take them all as a whole. The same people who will pay out big money for a "rare" PS2 game are essentially the same ones collecting SNES. I think most collectors are cross-platform, cross-gen collectors who basically go for most of the mainstream consoles all at once. Everybody is in competition over just about everything, in my view. Hence we've seen averages increase with every platform save 7th gen, since the mid 2000s.

Saturn prices are high (and have been relatively so for many years) due to the limited supply.
All Nintendo games have a popular markup, and their availability (or supply) does not hinder their values. This covers Gamecube.
PS1 is on the rise. I do not consider PS2 to be "the platform with really expensive games." That is to say all PS2 games are expensive (they are not) as the average PS2 game value might be $2. This is in contrast to NES, where the average game value is much higher.

Of course, there are always "1%" titles of any library that are well above the average or "above average" portion of the valuation spectrum. These types of titles cannot be used for overall valuation of the library.

The problem with lumping everything together is not taking into account that the different platforms fluctuate independently. So if you say you are seeing all game prices, on average, increase, you are not taking into account that Atari 2600 prices have fallen and something else has taken up that slack to make up the difference.

It's my understanding that the Atari collecting boom receded before most other platforms took off. VGPC shows that most consoles began rapid increase in price starting in the late 2000s. While you might consider PS2 games to be cheap compared to SNES, they've still increased a lot since in 7 years. $10, $15, $20 is a lot more than PS2 games were in the late 2000s. PS2 is not 20 years old yet, and has already seen a resurgence of interest in it's library, and the value of it's games while those considered to be uncommon already fetching hundreds of dollars. That's a symptom of game collecting as a whole. 7 years ago it didn't matter if a PS2 was "rare". Now there are Wii U games going for hundreds of dollars because they're "rare".

I'm sticking with my prediction that when it does crash, it will be cross-generation because very few game collectors focus on one particular generation, or one specific console. I think the exception for Atari was that many people who fondly remember Atari from back in the day stopped following the game scene after the 83' crash in NA. Most people I personally know who played Atari, didn't go on to play Nintendo or Sega in the late 80s.

[rudo8198]

Interesting topic and replies.  The way I see it is the only way prices have peaked is if the economy is about to take a dump.  Only a major major recession will crash prices and at that point everything will be cheaper because cash is king in a recession.  New collectors will always be coming into the market and others leaving.  20 years from now people will still be collecting these old games because they are still fun.  I'm in the process of re-purchasing all the games I sold over the years.  I have a 18 month old son now and want to put together a nice game room at my house.  I want to have a nice collection to play with my kids and lots of others are like me. 

[sworddude]

What about for example SNES NA vs Saturn NA? Saturn was a flop, yet the prices on it are still higher on average than the very nostalgic SNES. PS1 NA was a very popular platform, yet it remains with a lower average of prices. What about more modern platforms with really expensive games like PS2 and GameCube? Even Wii U? That to me is indiciative that you can take them all as a whole. The same people who will pay out big money for a "rare" PS2 game are essentially the same ones collecting SNES. I think most collectors are cross-platform, cross-gen collectors who basically go for most of the mainstream consoles all at once. Everybody is in competition over just about everything, in my view. Hence we've seen averages increase with every platform save 7th gen, since the mid 2000s.

Saturn prices are high (and have been relatively so for many years) due to the limited supply.
All Nintendo games have a popular markup, and their availability (or supply) does not hinder their values. This covers Gamecube.
PS1 is on the rise. I do not consider PS2 to be "the platform with really expensive games." That is to say all PS2 games are expensive (they are not) as the average PS2 game value might be $2. This is in contrast to NES, where the average game value is much higher.

Of course, there are always "1%" titles of any library that are well above the average or "above average" portion of the valuation spectrum. These types of titles cannot be used for overall valuation of the library.

The problem with lumping everything together is not taking into account that the different platforms fluctuate independently. So if you say you are seeing all game prices, on average, increase, you are not taking into account that Atari 2600 prices have fallen and something else has taken up that slack to make up the difference.

 and the value of it's games while those considered to be uncommon already fetching hundreds of dollars. That's a symptom of game collecting as a whole. 7 years ago it didn't matter if a PS2 was "rare". Now there are Wii U games going for hundreds of dollars because they're "rare".

There is one misconception about rare games being valuable and the collecting aspect.

Usually the ones that do go for nice money are good excellentgames wich are rare so were not only talking about pure collecting aspect, There are truly rare ps2 games wich are pretty bad yet not really valuable since the games are trash. Bad games are only valuable if the games are superbly rare and hyped for being rare since otherwise none know. Usually far less valuable than more common good rare titles wich go for nice money even if it is known to be rare.

the sega saturn especially the japanese one, the really expensive games are all solid titles that pretty much everyone wants to play just to name one example.

Yes you have daytona link edition for 1 grant but it is hyped and it is considered extemely rare. for this instance you have full set collectors yet for the good games you have allot more people who want to have them

The market for full sets and rare games is allot smaller than people who want to collect games that they want to enjoy. I don't see why any collector who collects games that one could enjoy would need this game unless your going for a full set wich means you would also need all the trash, Or ofcourse the collectors who collect for rarity and value.

There is a very limited market for truly rare items, for the sought after good games the market is allot larger. For expensive rare mediocre games there might just only be a handfull of people who want one.