Any chance the Nintendo Switch could fail at this point?

[dreama1]

Is there any chance the Nintendo Switch could fail at this point? or has it cemented itself at this point?

[ignition365]

I doubt it.  It's a solid system with seemingly solid support.

Though, I think it's still in potentially Wii U territory.  We are seeing titles release regularly, which is good, but time will only tell if Nintendo can keep 3rd party support.  LRG publishing on Switch will likely keep the Switch alive even if third party support dwindles, but it won't be much different than how things are for the Vita if it comes to that.

System adoption rates are incredibly high right now, which is good, but the Wii had 3 million more in system sales by this point and systems are no longer hard to acquire.  Wii had 20 million system sales in the first year, Switch might get another 3 mil by March.  There are no major titles coming out between now and then, nothing in system selling territory like Mario or Zelda.

Unless Nintendo can maintain and gain on third party support, they will likely continue playing second fiddle to the bigger consoles.

[dreama1]

I doubt it.  It's a solid system with seemingly solid support.

Though, I think it's still in potentially Wii U territory.  We are seeing titles release regularly, which is good, but time will only tell if Nintendo can keep 3rd party support.  LRG publishing on Switch will likely keep the Switch alive even if third party support dwindles, but it won't be much different than how things are for the Vita if it comes to that.

System adoption rates are incredibly high right now, which is good, but the Wii had 3 million more in system sales by this point and systems are no longer hard to acquire.  Wii had 20 million system sales in the first year, Switch might get another 3 mil by March.  There are no major titles coming out between now and then, nothing in system selling territory like Mario or Zelda.

Unless Nintendo can maintain and gain on third party support, they will likely continue playing second fiddle to the bigger consoles.

  "it's still in potentially Wii U territory." Is it even out of dreamcast territory yet?

[desocietas]

Looking pretty positive for its future in my opinion...

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/12/putting-nintendo-switchs-10-million-sales-in-context/

(Note that for most of these comparisons with other consoles, the time period includes an entire holiday season following a mid-November launch).

2.74 million: Nintendo Switch units sold in its first month on store shelves (March 2017)
3.91 million: Worldwide shipments for the Wii U approximately 10.5 months after launch.
5.63 million: Worldwide shipments for the PS3 in approximately 10.5 months of availability.
5.9 million: Worldwide shipments for the Xbox 360 in approximately 10.5 months of availability.
7 million: Approximate worldwide sales for the Xbox One in its first 10.5 months of availability.
8 million: Nintendo's reported initial plans for Switch production for its first full fiscal year (April 2017 through March 2018)
8.83 million: Worldwide shipments for the Nintendo DS in approximately 10.5 months of availability.
10 million: Worldwide Switch sales in just under 9 months, reported today.
10 million: Reported lifetime sales for the TurboGrafx-16.
10 million: Nintendo's expectation for Switch shipments in the entire April to May fiscal year, as announced in April (about 7.75 million sales have come in that time period so far).
13.17 million: Worldwide shipments of the Wii in approximately 10.5 months of availability.
13.5 million: Worldwide sales of the PS4 in approximately 10.5 months of availability.
13.56 million: Total sales of the Wii U in its four-year lifespan.
16.7 million: Number of Switch consoles Nintendo expects to sell worldwide by the end of March, as of October.
14.95 million: Worldwide shipments for the PS2 approximately 8 months after its North American release (includes about 3.52 million sales from six prior months of Japanese release)
25 to 30 million: Reported production plans for the Nintendo Switch's next fiscal year (April 2018 through March 2019).

[sworddude]

if were looking at total sales it can fail.

However they say saleswise it did very well comparable to ps4 etc or better in the beginning year, than again ps4 has 70 million sales switch only 10.

Maybe it will be comparable in sales to ps4 or maybe it will do mediocre, I have no clue.

It is however mainly thanks to It's portable status that sales are that high, if not for that it could have potentially be wii u sales bad.

[ignition365]

  "it's still in potentially Wii U territory." Is it even out of dreamcast territory yet?

Dreamcast was DOA.  Wii U was only slightly better.

Switch has a strong start, but if they can't maintain support, the strong start will mean nothing.  Currently, it's doing as well as the platform leaders for previous generations (Wii, PS2, PS4, etc.).  It's a good sign.  LRG publishing on the platform even at 1 game per month guarantees a steady stream of releases.  LRG claims that so far there are no weak titles in their Switch lineup with no intent of stopping.  EA has already dropped support for the Switch.  Ubisoft have been firm believers in what Nintendo does, but with Vivendi targeting them, that could all change if Vivendi takes over.  Bethesda and Rockstar providing support is massive, but at current, they are both only porting old titles.  Expect Fallout 4 to launch on Switch simultaneously with Fallout 4 VR on PSVR next November.

The Switch has the advantage that it can take over what little market share the Vita had.  Without the grab from the multiplatform AAA titles, they will be relegated to the secondary system like the Wii was.  Which worked for Nintendo, but not a ton of people have respect for the Wii because of that... plus the motion controllers.

[dreama1]

  "it's still in potentially Wii U territory." Is it even out of dreamcast territory yet?

Dreamcast was DOA.  Wii U was only slightly better.

Switch has a strong start, but if they can't maintain support, the strong start will mean nothing.  Currently, it's doing as well as the platform leaders for previous generations (Wii, PS2, PS4, etc.).  It's a good sign.  LRG publishing on the platform even at 1 game per month guarantees a steady stream of releases.  LRG claims that so far there are no weak titles in their Switch lineup with no intent of stopping.  EA has already dropped support for the Switch.  Ubisoft have been firm believers in what Nintendo does, but with Vivendi targeting them, that could all change if Vivendi takes over.  Bethesda and Rockstar providing support is massive, but at current, they are both only porting old titles.  Expect Fallout 4 to launch on Switch simultaneously with Fallout 4 VR on PSVR next November.

The Switch has the advantage that it can take over what little market share the Vita had.  Without the grab from the multiplatform AAA titles, they will be relegated to the secondary system like the Wii was.  Which worked for Nintendo, but not a ton of people have respect for the Wii because of that... plus the motion controllers.

The DC had a strong 8 months in north america.

[desocietas]

The Switch has the advantage that it can take over what little market share the Vita had.

This is a big one in my opinion. With no competition for handheld, the Switch is only up against the mobile market. Personally, I think the Switch is a little too big to succeed as a handheld, but it's versatility is really nice. It's a shame there's no StreetPass sort of thing - that was a big incentive for me to carry around my 3DS/DS, especially in Japan.

[burningdoom]

  "it's still in potentially Wii U territory." Is it even out of dreamcast territory yet?

Dreamcast was DOA.  Wii U was only slightly better.

It was the opposite. Dreamcast had the most successful launch of any console up to that point.

But then the looming shadow of the PS2 made sales drop more and more as time went on.

[ignition365]

  "it's still in potentially Wii U territory." Is it even out of dreamcast territory yet?

Dreamcast was DOA.  Wii U was only slightly better.

It was the opposite. Dreamcast had the most successful launch of any console up to that point.

But then the looming shadow of the PS2 made sales drop more and more as time went on.

The announcement of the PS2 before the Dreamcast even released in the US had already started killing hype for the system.  The system was sold at a loss from the start and had little to no support from the big publishers.  Plus, Sega had already hurt their image enough with the Sega CD, 32X, and Saturn.

DC and Wii U life and support are very comparable.

[telly]

At least the Dreamcast actually had some solid third party support from Capcom, Ubisoft, and Midway, among others. The Wii U barely had any support that was worth mentioning period.

[burningdoom]

  "it's still in potentially Wii U territory." Is it even out of dreamcast territory yet?

Dreamcast was DOA.  Wii U was only slightly better.

It was the opposite. Dreamcast had the most successful launch of any console up to that point.

But then the looming shadow of the PS2 made sales drop more and more as time went on.

The announcement of the PS2 before the Dreamcast even released in the US had already started killing hype for the system.  The system was sold at a loss from the start and had little to no support from the big publishers.  Plus, Sega had already hurt their image enough with the Sega CD, 32X, and Saturn.

DC and Wii U life and support are very comparable.

Dreamcast launched in 1998 in Japan, 1999 (9/9/1999, Dreamcast day) in the U.S. PS2 wasn't announced until March 2000.

The Dreamcast had a HUGE launch with high sales numbers, tons of hype, and a very strong launch game line-up. Wii U never had that initial success, nor did it have a strong launch line-up. And it had the opposite of hype, people were confused about it.

And Dreamcast had PLENTY of third-party support. The best multiplatform titles between 1998 to early 2001 were Dreamcast games.

That's not to say it was successful, not saying that. Just saying it had a very strong start, and then trickled off from there

[ignition365]

  "it's still in potentially Wii U territory." Is it even out of dreamcast territory yet?

Dreamcast was DOA.  Wii U was only slightly better.

It was the opposite. Dreamcast had the most successful launch of any console up to that point.

But then the looming shadow of the PS2 made sales drop more and more as time went on.

The announcement of the PS2 before the Dreamcast even released in the US had already started killing hype for the system.  The system was sold at a loss from the start and had little to no support from the big publishers.  Plus, Sega had already hurt their image enough with the Sega CD, 32X, and Saturn.

DC and Wii U life and support are very comparable.

Dreamcast launched in 1998 in Japan, 1999 (9/9/1999, Dreamcast day) in the U.S. PS2 wasn't announced until March 2000.

The Dreamcast had a HUGE launch with high sales numbers, tons of hype, and a very strong launch game line-up. Wii U never had that initial success, nor did it have a strong launch line-up. And it had the opposite of hype, people were confused about it.

And Dreamcast had PLENTY of third-party support. The best multiplatform titles between 1998 to early 2001 were Dreamcast games.

That's not to say it was successful, not saying that. Just saying it had a very strong start, and then trickled off from there

The first info about what would be the PS2 was announced in March 1999.

Dreamcast had 20-ish games on US release.  Wii U had 30-ish on release.

Wii U had third-party support at the beginning.  EA, Ubisoft, Activision, Namco, Sega, WB, THQ, and Square.  Plus, Wii U over any other platform was the most indie friendly at the time.

Also, stating that the best multi-platform games were one consoles games, doesn't make much sense.  They were multi-platform.  Plus, most multi-platform games reviewed higher on PS1.

[kamikazekeeg]

Nintendo Switch Has Sold 10 Million Units to Date
http://variety.com/2017/digital/games/nintendo-switch-10-million-console-sales-1202636150/

The Switch will be just fine.

[telly]

The vast, vast majority of early 3rd party games published on the Wii U were ports of PS3 and Xbox 360 games though. Sure the Dreamcast had that too, but at least they were visually upgraded and reviewed well, and the Dreamcast still got plenty of exclusive games from third party supporters well into 2000.

Third party support for the Wii U evaporated as quickly as Ubisoft made Rayman Legends multiplatform.