This group has been so full of people saying the bubble is going to pop and everything will become worthless for years and years. The stimulus checks definitely have caused a massive spike. Once economic reality hits for some people, we will see some plateauing of price for many commons that have shot up and many will drop back down to pre-pandemic levels. Some may even drop further below that. But rare low print games that have all the sudden doubled, tripled or even more, don't expect the same drops in price. This is the new reality.
I gave up on the bubble theory, but I am a firm believer in the decline theory. In fact, we were already seeing it happen before all the COVID shit started. I think that once stuff starts to reopen more and fewer and fewer people worry about getting sick we'll start seeing a pretty large purge which will bring prices down. I think some rare stuff will go up, but most will go down to some degree over time. I don't think Little Samson is ever going to be a sub-$100 game ever again, not even close, but maybe settle around $500 or $600 again. Some of the absolute rarest stuff like NWC or Stadium Events will never drop in price, and I can even see some of that stuff being like certain Gold and Silver Age comics that never depreciate.
I'm convinced at this point, that this stuff will not be valuable forever. You've got to think about some of the facts - There's a certain age group of people who are super nostalgic about all this stuff, because we were young and we were kids when it was new. We're the reason that it's so valuable right now. We all want this stuff from our past including the things of that era that we couldn't afford or justify back then. But there's only so many of us in this retro collecting marketing, and there's only so many of us who are loaded with disposable income and willing to blow it, and there is a finite goal in mind for many us.
My parents don't care about video games, and my uncle doesn't even care about them. These younger kids today are not going to have any sentimentality about cartridges or CDs when they grow older. It's mainly those of us who were raised on these games in 80s and 90s. We're not going to keep paying one another more and more ridiculous amounts to own that one missing title from our libraries. There absolutely is a threshold, to what most people will pay for a single game. When it's free money, that's a bit of a different story. Everybody is talking about flash carts now, and are aware of how easy and convenient that is.
For a lot of us, we're probably the only person we even know of who's super obsessed with retro games, unless you went seeking out like-minded individuals. I feel that it just isn't as culturally significant as those of us in this bubble would like to believe it is. It's actually kind of niche. I firmly believe we will be looking back in the not so distant future and thinking "Wow, I can't believe what some of this was going for!".
When the question was posed several years ago, I didn't have a real sense of what was going to happen, but now I feel like the writing actually is on the wall. It's just gotten ultra-ridiculous, and when collecting started to become a more modernized / commercialized thing with companies like LRG and retro game trinkets turning up inside of every GameStop, I think that was the tell-tale sign that we were entering the final phase of this being a hot and trendy thing to do. It's mostly all targeted at that same demographics of people, and I'm really starting to see signs of fatigue in it.
There's a number of consoles I've thrown in the towel on almost completely, regardless of whatever else I've wanted. I've been shifting my focus towards other consoles which I've neglected, and I've notice that's also been a trend as of late if you look at recent sales trends. We're all basically a hive mind, and I can tell you from experience the collecting itself is getting kind of old and that's why I'm seeking out something different. So I figure most other's probably feel about the same way. I'm actually considering to get a TG-16 and then just use a flash cart, and never buy any games for it. I'd bet a lot of other collector's are probably thinking that too.
So I do think the crash is coming, but we'll see.