The price of retro games in 50 years from now? Theories? Doom? Share.

[dreama1]

The price of retro games in 50 years from now?

People talk about a few years in the future about the price of retro games, but how about 50 years from now? Can anyone imagine this? Or have any theories exactly what the market will look like if there will even be one? Or does this die with us? Well I mean the memories, and the stories, or the esteem the golden era of gaming is being held up on?

Are we close to a new golden age with the VR market opening up soon (but not that soon), and with it the games testing new barriers?
That the standards set before it will be more a distant memory? Maybe it seems like the atari generation has been overshadowed by the generations after it. Come the same trend happen again pushing everything deeper into the sands of time?

 

[maximo310]

The market isn't going to last another 50 years. Maybe it will for another 5-10, but there's gonna be a point where prices will come crashing down similar to other market's boom and busts over the years.
I dunno about VR; not really a fan of it, and I can't really see how its going to usher in a new golden age unless they market it very well.

[dreama1]

The market isn't going to last another 50 years. Maybe it will for another 5-10, but there's gonna be a point where prices will come crashing down similar to other market's boom and busts over the years.
I dunno about VR; not really a fan of it, and I can't really see how its going to usher in a new golden age unless they market it very well.

5-10 years? Interesting. But what exactly does this mean? I've heard it phased before but no one expanded upon this.

And people are still hoarding the rarities globally, why will it crash in price exactly? As time goes on the quantity will begin to go down from aging, but demand stays high? It means trading/selling games will become too expensive? Meaning the price dropping or? Just not being able to sell them?

[sloan11]

I've been thinking about this lately, too. I'm a youngster just now dipping my toes into retro gaming and loving every second of it... I made the analogy comparing video games to baseball cards the other day. Its not a perfect comparison, but I think there could be some similarities.

I hesitate to make the comparison to vinyl... i don't think the 2 products can be compared, but maybe just look at the vinyl market... 15 years ago nobody would've thought vinyls would ever become relevant again, and now they are probably the number one selling physical format for music, and along with that comes an interest in vintage records too.. record shops surging, etc... and the equipment necessary to enjoy records is like consoles needed for carts..

I guess I just say that to make the following point: it can be tough to predict.

[dreama1]

I've been thinking about this lately, too. I'm a youngster just now dipping my toes into retro gaming and loving every second of it... I made the analogy comparing video games to baseball cards the other day. Its not a perfect comparison, but I think there could be some similarities.

I hesitate to make the comparison to vinyl... i don't think the 2 products can be compared, but maybe just look at the vinyl market... 15 years ago nobody would've thought vinyls would ever become relevant again, and now they are probably the number one selling physical format for music, and along with that comes an interest in vintage records too.. record shops surging, etc... and the equipment necessary to enjoy records is like consoles needed for carts..

I guess I just say that to make the following point: it can be tough to predict.

What happened with baseball cards exactly? I'm not familiar. They're still popular right?

[sloan11]

I've been thinking about this lately, too. I'm a youngster just now dipping my toes into retro gaming and loving every second of it... I made the analogy comparing video games to baseball cards the other day. Its not a perfect comparison, but I think there could be some similarities.

I hesitate to make the comparison to vinyl... i don't think the 2 products can be compared, but maybe just look at the vinyl market... 15 years ago nobody would've thought vinyls would ever become relevant again, and now they are probably the number one selling physical format for music, and along with that comes an interest in vintage records too.. record shops surging, etc... and the equipment necessary to enjoy records is like consoles needed for carts..

I guess I just say that to make the following point: it can be tough to predict.

What happened with baseball cards exactly? I'm not familiar. They're still popular right?

not nearly like they used to be. from my POV i'd say they are basically dead right now. Just a year or two ago there was only 1 company with an MLB deal to even use MLB logos on their cards! my dad owned baseball card shops years ago (80's, 90's) but all those places dried up and now theres nothing, really. There was a point in time where he traded sets of cars for motor vehicles lol but those same cards today aren't worth hot wheels.

i even sold most of my collection (except the sentimental value ones of course!)

[sloan11]

of course you'll continue to hear about rare babe ruth or Honus Wagner cards being auctioned for millions... i was speaking more about current makes and the retro stuff like 1952 and forward...

[kmacdw]

50 years from now theoretically all CD based games should be all dead; and DVD's shouldn't be far from following them.

Blu-Ray games will still work but the consoles will probably have long broken and I doubt there'll be the right parts to fix them.

I'm sure cartridges will still be about but I'd imagine there'll be far less of them and I'd guess that with games that utilise a battery for saving, there'll be none left that still save.

Honestly I imagine games will simply be collected as a memento of the past; just the boxes sitting there without the ability to play them.

I'd like to think all the games will be preserved and available online though.

[kmacdw]

The market isn't going to last another 50 years. Maybe it will for another 5-10, but there's gonna be a point where prices will come crashing down similar to other market's boom and busts over the years.
I dunno about VR; not really a fan of it, and I can't really see how its going to usher in a new golden age unless they market it very well.

We need true jacked in VR for it to be any good.

I want to be able to put on a headset, lie down on my bed and then control a virtual me in another world. So maybe 20 years from now, we'll have true VR instead of this responsive screen on your head/motion controlled bullshit.

[sworddude]

50 years from now theoretically all CD based games should be all dead; and DVD's shouldn't be far from following them.

Blu-Ray games will still work but the consoles will probably have long broken and I doubt there'll be the right parts to fix them.

I'm sure cartridges will still be about but I'd imagine there'll be far less of them and I'd guess that with games that utilise a battery for saving, there'll be none left that still save.

Honestly I imagine games will simply be collected as a memento of the past; just the boxes sitting there without the ability to play them.

I'd like to think all the games will be preserved and available online though.

All games are already preserved online lol.

You can already play pretty much all retro games on an emulator.

In all seriousness though I do hope that the videogame market crashes since there are so many games that I still want but are way to pricey.

Besides I didn't invest much thanks to the deals so I don't care if the value goes down the drain.

Still though I fear that after 50 years older games will end up behind glass cases for way higher prices than anyone would pay for them. I think old nintendo and sega stuff might even go as high as collector prices of 1000's - 10.000's wich are already spent on some VG factory sealed games

I don't know but it might happen since the games will shrink in amounts, they get damaged and less in excellent shape will survive in the following years. Especially 50 years.

[abe]

I'm sure cartridges will still be about but I'd imagine there'll be far less of them and I'd guess that with games that utilise a battery for saving, there'll be none left that still save.

Except it's super easy to replace save batteries, so that won't really be a big issue.

[kmacdw]

I'm sure cartridges will still be about but I'd imagine there'll be far less of them and I'd guess that with games that utilise a battery for saving, there'll be none left that still save.

Except it's super easy to replace save batteries, so that won't really be a big issue.

Yes now it is. However I don't think those batteries will be used anymore so I doubt they'll be manufactured. So there will be a finite amount that will run out.

[tripredacus]

Physical media game values will enter the realm of what obsolete media trades for today. The games only retain a value because they can be used. There are ways to still connect the systems to your TV for use. Where the TV industry goes, so will the game market. As newer display technologies come out, the old will lose their compatibility and the technicians who can repair the old will dwindle. This is why old technology preservation is important if you want these formats to exist.

What happened with baseball cards exactly? I'm not familiar. They're still popular right?

not nearly like they used to be. from my POV i'd say they are basically dead right now. Just a year or two ago there was only 1 company with an MLB deal to even use MLB logos on their cards! my dad owned baseball card shops years ago (80's, 90's) but all those places dried up and now theres nothing, really. There was a point in time where he traded sets of cars for motor vehicles lol but those same cards today aren't worth hot wheels.

The overall sports card industry has ties to how the Baseball card portion works. Currently, baseball cards are actually up from where they were in the mid 90s. The problem with cards in the 80s was that they entered a period of over production. Everything became overvalued or overhyped, but the market bubble did not crash because of that. It crashed because of the MLB strike in 1994. The value/investment bubble burst with it. The manufacturers had scaled back their production, but there was still a lot of product available even up until now. The issue was then that people weren't buying as much in the mid to late 90s and as a result, cards from that era are more uncommon than they would have been otherwise. One exception was during the McGwire/Sosa/Castilla home run chase of 1998, which brought up the market a bit. Enough so that overproduction in terms of available products increased dramatically until around 2004.

Around the period of 2004 saw a decrease in the amount of products. For 2 reasons, companies (Pacific, Fleer) folded up, Jose Canseco's book, MLB Steroid bans and court cases, NHL lockout and Upper Deck was granted exclusive NHL license. Production shrank again, bringing a smaller number of products to the retail space and introducing (actual) premium products. These combinations started the trend of retailers stopping to sell product. That and also shifting shelf presence away from sports and into CCGs. High end products priced themselves out of the average card collector and did not make an appearance in retail.

What has already happened for video games has been trending up for baseball cards. Products from the junk wax era (1982-1993) have had their values going up. Boxes you couldn't give away, or sold for $5 are now going for $10-15. Products from the low purchased era (1995-1999) have gone up even more. Boxes in the $10-20 range are now up into the $50-80+ in some cases. Soon the 2000s era products will move up as well. I would like to say that the baseball card market is on the top of the 4 sports.

[bikingjahuty]

Predicting anything 50-years down the road is next to impossible. There will certainly be be booms, downs and all other mater of things socially, economically, and globally in general. How these will effect the retro game market cannot be seen, however I do believe hat despite all of this, retro gaming will crash relatively soon. Probably within the next decade.

What were are seeing right now is the coming of age of people who grew up during the mid to late 80s; they are getting careers and disposable income, and most also happen to be in that sweet spot between single and no kids and married with children. They are going back and collecting relics from their childhood which has increased demand on older games. However this same thing happened a little over a decade with Atari games as people who grew up during the 70s were in thee same position, which caused that niche to explode as well. Admittedly it was not as big as NES, SNES, or TG16 collecting is now but prices were a ot higher on Atari games during the mid 90s up until the mid 2000s. Now Atari games can be found everywhere and even some of the rarer titles are a lot cheaper than they were. This same spike in collectibility and price has happened in other hobbies as well including toys, baseball cards, and comics (which are coming back again). All limited comodities that rose in price and eventually plummeted after years of being in demand.

What will bring an end to the retro gaming boom has already begun. People lose interest, people take on all kinds of new responsibilities (mortgage, kids, medical bills) and sell off their collection, once again increasing quantity and decreasing price. This will happen more and more over the next 5-years and I can't see any retro games, outside of the very rare titles retaining their value. Even games like Little Samson or Ducktales 2 will decrease in price. Probably never to their pre-retro gaming boom prices, but at least half of what they go for now.

Again, this has happened with most collectables over the years and I have no reason to believe retro games are an exception.

[burningdoom]

People have been saying the market will burst for years now. I think at this point, it's a pipe dream. This is more than just a fad, and is just getting more and more mainstream and accepted.

Also, it doesn't seem to be going away generationally, even. I remember when I started to really collect Atari 2600 and NES were all the rage. Now it seems like we're getting to the point where N64 and GameCube are becoming big collectors items. That's because younger people are continuing to relive their childhoods. And that's going to continue a few years down the road with PS2, Wii, and 360.

And finally, retro games are not being continually made and restocked. So the supply is just going to continually dwindle. There are repros, yes, but most of the time those are made in limited quantities, and lot of collectors don't even want them anyways.

As time goes on, it's going to get harder and more competitive to collect retro games because of these reasons. It's already gotten that way. In 2000-2005, I could get most any NES & SNES games for around $10 (except for the exceptionally rare, of course). Now, good luck finding that outside of message board deal or a yard sale.

On the other hand, digital distribution of classic games has gotten easier and more mainstream. So at least those will be easily accessible, always.