i don't know... the american internet landscape has to improve first. sure a lot of us have access to the internet (87%) but the speeds are usually pretty slow, with <1% having gigabit internet speeds.
and iirc, <20% even having 60mb/s speeds.
in other words, right now, it's not feasible to me, and clearly devs know this, else, we'd be at all-digital already. i argued this last gen, when people contemplated if ps4/xbone would be digital only, and lo and behold, i was right.
so until the usa gets its shit together on internet speeds, i don't see this happening. it'll happen quicker in the EU countries, asia, but not in the usa until 60mb/s is at least standard, with most metro areas having 1gb/s speeds.
I agree with you on the US internet speeds sucking balls. But something else is at play because many games see physical release in the EU and Japan but not in the US. Recent examples include Infamous First Light, Ratchet & Clank Quest for Booty and Bloodborne Game of the Year Edition. As far as I know, Japan is lightyears ahead of us in internet speeds, yet most of their games are released on disc while we get a crappy download.
i think the japanese are more willing to go out and buy games tho? the country has a very 'traditional' outlook, i suppose? not sure.
americans are willing to jump on board with new ideas (compared to the japanese) so while most americans with decent (read: 10 mb/s or better) internet are willing to hop online anyway (i've met younger people who have downloaded entire games on
4g mobile fucking hotspot before)... i don't know. there are a fuckload of game shops there, and they do pretty well. and i don't know the landscape there, obviously, but americans have a huge mistrust of corporations... not unwarranted, mind you, a lot of them engage in horrid anti-consumer practises. everyone has a beef with at least one big-box company... walmart, gamestop, best buy, amazon, target... name any retail store that sells games and there's at least a small group of people who hate them for whatever reason, and somewhere deep in their 'terms of sale' there is some anti-consumer clause. it might be buried deep, but it's there.
not only that, but there's probably an anti-distributor clause deep in there, as well. again, i don't know japan's landscape. i don't know how their businesses work, but retail space competition is fierce here and i can see why some companies won't bother releasing a physical format if the competition is too fierce, if shelf space comes too expensive. how many times does a new release not even get the box art facing outward at gamestop? how many times is only its spine sticking out with the rest of the games that are lettered E-R? in what videos i HAVE seen of japanese shops, they seem to have more room in general, and when they don't, everything is spine-only. it seems fairer, then.
and also, day-1 sales matter more there than here. in japan, day-1 sales are everything... after week 1, sales drop off a ledge. it's more steady here.
japanese people also may not have the time americans do to search through the PSN store for new titles. which could be a big contributor. if japanese people don't hop on PSN shop as often, then those titles would be missed. but they can stop by a game store on the train ride home. sure, they could go home and jump on PSN, but... the thing is, is from WHAT I UNDERSTAND, and this might be outdated, but from what i understand, most japanese people don't use credit cards often.
so they'd probably stop by anyway for the PSN shop card for 2000 yen or whatever. so i imagine, they see more benefit in advertising a physical copy (since those people would stop by anyway) and then... why buy a psn card, over just buying the game on a physical format?
i mean, as someone who goes into game shops, it's not like i see advertisement for digital-only titles all over the place. of course i don't. gamestop doesn't earn much cash from digital-only.
if i were someone who went on the psn shop a lot, tho, i'd probably just use a credit card... probably a different one than the one tied to my bank, maybe a reusable card i can load cash onto, but i'd not bother buying the psn cards over and over... which means i would never go into a game shop, which means the doubleslap of advertisement (the physical release reinforcing in my mind to buy it with the psn card) would never happen. the benefit isn't there in the USA, because we freely use electronic cards over cash... japan does not.
...
this got a little... sidewinded, but that's all i've got on the subject. there might be more reason, but i'd imagine it's some combo of these factors. the japanese culture is very traditional/not many people use electronic cards over cash/game stores that sell the psn cards get more foot traffic that ends up buying physical media over the digital currency/no time for workers there to slog through psn shop when they could just pop in a store on the way home and grab a game (just like most people would do if you had a game store en route to the way home, i'd imagine)
It's not just download speeds too. You have disc space limitations. You also have companies that choose to have bandwidth caps where you only get a few hundred GB per month.
Unless the data cap thing goes away, I find it too hard to believe we will go strictly digital.
i forgot about this because i don't live in an ISP monopoly area so ofc both ISPs in my area are quick to shout NO DATA CAP NO CONTRACTS PLZ BUY US 60MB/S PLZ
i remember my dad arguing in favour of data caps lmao, back before things were... so big.
until console hard drives are bigger than 1TB, until data caps, until speeds, until until until.
the reason PC gets away with this is really obvious, imo. PC isn't wireless, most people who game on PC regularly have good cash (/live in good areas with good internet). with PC, you can have any size HDD you want. and multiples. but in reality, a lot of PC owners dont have optical drives (i sure as fuck do not lmao) and SURE as fuck not a bluray drive and most PC gamers (other than enthusiasts) are probably all playing MMOs/MOBAs or a choice few other titles, most of which are online-only... so they'd not benefit much from a disc anyway.