I am surprisingly bad at picking out titles with long-term value, really. I think of the stuff I got brand new, only my Lunar sets have gained value. I guess Xenogears & Zelda: Minish Cap too, but only becuase I never bothered to open them.
Luckily, I don't buy a lot of brand-new games, so I'm not really down for value... but I'm certainly not beat MSRP on most of my stuff.