Man, Genesis exploded in value over the past several years, hasn't it? It used to be considered the cheaper alternative to SNES... but every somewhat obscure game that's actually good on the system is near or over a $100 bill for cart only. Most of you listed easily a thousand dollars worth of Genesis games in your posts. Probably would have totaled $50 back when we all started this journey. Absolutely nuts what we foolish collectors will pay for the things we want. Why we don't all just stick a flash cart in our systems and be done, I don't know.
I went into a local game store today, and noticed they had jacked the priced up on literally everything in there that I had made a mental note of prior. Average price of the common tier games was like $20 range. I just want to be done with this stuff. It's just getting financially stupid to pay new game level prices on every retro cart or disc that can be dug up out of someone's closet, while we can essentially have all of this to play for free now.
I've noticed that a lot of collectors migrate from one retro console to another once prices or availability get out of hand. Given how much more popular it was in North America, everyone jumped on the SNES first while the Genesis spent years in the background being like "hey, remember me guys?" Outside hardcore Sega fans, few collected for it and because of that it was a very cheap alternative for years. I noticed around the time SNES started to dip in interest and price, Genesis and Dreamcast took off (Saturn also, but those games have been pricy for a long time). I think it's starting to cool a little, but yeah, most of the better games go for 2x, 3x, or sometimes even way more than they did just 6 or 7 years ago.
I think with inflation being so bad on everything, people have already started prioritizing what they need over things they want (ie. video game collecting). While prices are sky high on most stuff still, I have noticed things begin to slip again somewhat. This started happening naturally in 2019 and the beginning of 2020 on most retro games, however we all know what happened later on in 2020. The combo of forcing people to stay in their homes, free money, and the need for escapism drove retro gaming and many other leasure hobbies through the roof in terms of prices to levels they'd have never reached under any other circumstances. I think it'll be a long, long time before retro games return to their pre-COVID levels, with some stubbornly staying way overvalued most likely for decades to come. But I see that natural decline in interest starting to manifest itself again and combined with general inflation, I can see prices on Genesis and most other retro games drop quite a bit in the coming years. Again, we are never returning to the days of $15 Mario Kart 64 carts and $5 Sonic 3, but I can see prices returning to where they were in 2017/2018 in the coming years.
Hard to say tbh, console gaming is at a peak and videogames made a decent splash in the movie scene in which you do get allot of regular folks to said media.
Maybe for the niche stuff, but I can't imagine the hyped things going back down even years later if they keep the popularity of these old ip's up.
Plus you still gotto keep up with the shrinking supply of said games which will naturally keep prices high because less and less is available each year. so for prices to go down you would need a faster pace of people dropping out compared to the supply dropping. but again with mainstream stuff bringing these things in the spotlight it might be more likely for more people to get into the hobby instead of dropping out.
I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure 90% of all the people that ever wanted to go back and revisit a console like the Dreamcast or SNES have done so by now. Sure, some kids born well after certain older retro consoles were discontinued will want to get into them, either because of their parents or stumbling upon the games online, but from my experience most of Gen Z doesn't care about anything older than 7th gen, and I'd close to half don't care about anything that isn't on a tablet or phone. They're a generation pretty divorced from the experience of physical ownership, and one I don't see ever looking decades into the past when it comes to video games.
This leaves people that did grow up with it or were at least alive when certain consoles or games came out. Most of the people that wanted to get into collecting have done so by now, especially those over 30, and I find with each passing year fewer and fewer new people are jumping in due to prices and availability, as well as great alternatives like mini consoles, compilations on newer consoles, and flashcarts. I also see more people each year selling off their collection or at least downsizing.
The main driver for keeping retro game prices high at the moment is inflation, with demand still there, but noticeably waning. And inflation will prove to be a double edged sword on the retro game scene since a lot of people will have to pick basic needs over fun stuff, if they already haven't (I know a few that have fallen into this boat in the last year or two). I'm not going to say there's going to be a crash, but rather a gradual cooling that will probably take over a decade until it hits the bottom. And yes, certain games will never go down in price again, and some will even continue to go up given their rarity or desirability.
Just my prediction based on what I'm seeing, but I think when it comes to price and availability, it will get better slowly from here on out for the most part.
