Retro collecting is dying!

[soera]

Every place now is jumping on the bandwagon as far as selling games for ebay prices. One of the Goodwills in my area recently got DW 1-4 in box as well as a copy of Sword master in box. I was damn excited ... til I saw the price.

I tend to agree that this bubble will never totally pop. Ill get Earthbound one day but its going to be a lucky find day. Same with Rayearth and Centy.

[sin2beta]

I was pondering video game pricing earlier this evening. It's pretty much a given than if you collect you more than likely grew up playing video games. Video games are more than likely going to continue on as one of Generation Y's (and younger) primary sources of entertainment. This will, in turn, provide a fairly stable marketplace and a perpetual pool of collectors for years to come. The number of rare titles will diminish as we progress further away from physical media, but there will more than likely always be some form of demand present. Video games are part of what define Generation Y and most of us will continue to purchase and play video games until we are physically or mentally unable to do so.

Demand will fluctuate from console to console and from game to game. Prices will (obviously) follow demand. However, I have a very difficult time believing that we are in a true "bubble". As those of us who collect continue to grow older and our disposable incomes increase, it will become easier and easier to justify the price of what we want be it video games, cars, houses, etc. This should keep prices pretty stable on an average basis. Does this mean that Earthbound will always be over $200 for cart only? No. However, I highly doubt it will permanently fall below the $60-$100 range.

History tells us that the best time to buy games at a discount is during the first few years of a new console cycle. When new systems come out the games for their predecessors drop as stores make way for new inventory. It's all about supply versus demand coupled with what someone is willing to pay. Unfortunately, I don't see an enormous bubble like many of you seem to.

I think what you say makes sense. However, I do not think that generations beyond Gen Y will be too into collecting games (EDIT: games before their time). I am in Gen Y (at least in some definitions of beginning year ranges... I was born in 86) and I have absolutely no interest in collecting atari, colecovision, etc. People rarely collect what they did not have growing up.

Also, as years go on. More people leave collecting than get into it. The comic shop I go to every wednesday will fairly often get boxes upon boxes donated by customers whose wives (and sometimes husbands... but mostly wives) demand they get rid of those boxes of useless %*^&.

With disposable income comes the potential to collect. With life comes the abandonment of collecting. Just in the short time I have been collecting, I have seen numerous people sell off their collection. There is even a youtube tag going around asking "how much is too much". You can see a lot of people on the fence about keeping their collections and the frustrations they have.

At some point, more people leave than get into the hobby.

[tripredacus]

Goodwill is pretty much the only place I can find good deals on video games anymore. Even the local flea market sellers thinks they have gold on their hands if they come across an NES cartridge.

Thrift stores are primarily where I get my games from nowadays. Most of the time the people there are older and don't know what things are. For example, I got Pokemon blue for a quarter last year sometime. The only difference is Goodwill actually knows what some things are, since they have that auction site. But that doesn't mean some deals still can be found.

[insektmute]

Some people have, just like they did with comic books. Also it's not the hoarders that is the problem it's the people who are trying to make a quick buck.

Massive flashbacks here to the 90's "speculator boom" that practically killed the entire industry. I remember a lot of companies who went under as a result, too - all that money coming in, then poof, all gone, and tons of companies left with thousands upon thousands of overprinted books that you couldn't even give away to people once the dust cleared.

[burningdoom]

Some people have, just like they did with comic books. Also it's not the hoarders that is the problem it's the people who are trying to make a quick buck.

Massive flashbacks here to the 90's "speculator boom" that practically killed the entire industry. I remember a lot of companies who went under as a result, too - all that money coming in, then poof, all gone, and tons of companies left with thousands upon thousands of overprinted books that you couldn't even give away to people once the dust cleared.

Heh, I'm a big collector of both comics and video games. And if retro games are anything like comic books, then in just a few years retro-games will be dirt cheap when the market busts (except for those truly rare games that really do deserve a high price, the same can be said for comics).

[sin2beta]

Some people have, just like they did with comic books. Also it's not the hoarders that is the problem it's the people who are trying to make a quick buck.

Massive flashbacks here to the 90's "speculator boom" that practically killed the entire industry. I remember a lot of companies who went under as a result, too - all that money coming in, then poof, all gone, and tons of companies left with thousands upon thousands of overprinted books that you couldn't even give away to people once the dust cleared.

Although, to be fair, I think the companies killed the industry more than the speculators. Speculators are probably a sign of a thriving pop culture medium.

The comic industry was killed a little by the direct market distributors. Comics were no longer able to be sent back to the publisher (encouraging back issue bins) and the amount of books needed to order was cut back. This allowed several smaller shops into the fray that were not able to sustain. Two-thirds of all direct-market stores shut down largely due to this.

Marvel's bankruptcy didn't help either. However, this wasn't due to finances as much as Ron Perelman buying the company with dummy corporations.

The publishers messed things up by not keeping track of delays of their crossovers. The Deathmate crossover is largely considered one of the biggest reasons of the bubble busting. The first issue sold well. Stores preordered mountains of the second issue, but it was delayed so long no one cared. Stores were left with many unsellable comics. Deathmate is not the only instance, but the magnitude of this one example is staggering.

The video game market is very different. The distribution system for games and comics are VERY different. And Limited editions are no where near the level of danger. The limited editions, in most cases, are reserved for preorders to protect the shops.

Speculators did not kill comics. The comic industry killed comics. I would suggest reading Fred Van Lente's Comic Book Comics if interested. He also goes over an insanely fascinating exploration of why comics flourished in Japan and started to die in the USA. http://www.amazon.com/Comic-Book-History-Comics-Lente/dp/1613771975/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1359773562&sr=8-1&keywords=fred+van+lente+comic+book+comics

Ultimately, I think the word "bubble" is being used in two different ways on this thread. Some are saying that the industry will crash. Some say that due to high prices, people will slowly just look elsewhere, causing the retro gaming medium to shrink considerably. But ultimately, most shops and the industry are not tied to the success of retro games nearly as much as comics were.

[wag]

There's going to come a point in time, when collectors can not get what they want (unopened, boxed, manual, no scratches, etc.). It then comes down to how much cash it takes to separate a fan from the game they want to own. I would not buy a game if I didn't intend on playing it, so I guess in that regard I am not a true collector -- but if I see something I want, I build up a solid amount of determination to get it.

I own a few games, mostly disc-based, but I know for a fact I think every so often about which of those titles I absolutely could not be separated from. I'm going to play them again. When I was younger, I cycled through game via the Gamestop trade-ins, just to get the newest whatever game it was. I gave up some gems, and I regretted it when I suddenly found myself wanting those games back -- usually shelling out more than the original cost to re-acquire. I haven't traded in or sold a game since recognizing that as a possibility. How many others feel this way, and will not be selling games anymore?

There's a good chance, that with more and more digital collections, there will be some who are willing to part ways with there physical copies, with such huge cash gains on certain games. Still, there's the idea of owning something physical. Digital is only available as long as your console works, and as long as Nintendo, Microsoft, Sony continue supporting them online. For that reason, physical will continue to dominate the libraries, but there's no way that all collectors can get what they want. Expectations will lower, and the bar will be reset. Something, something, something... don't even know what the original topic was.

[insektmute]

Although, to be fair, I think the companies killed the industry more than the speculators. Speculators are probably a sign of a thriving pop culture medium.

The comic industry was killed a little by the direct market distributors. Comics were no longer able to be sent back to the publisher (encouraging back issue bins) and the amount of books needed to order was cut back. This allowed several smaller shops into the fray that were not able to sustain. Two-thirds of all direct-market stores shut down largely due to this.

Marvel's bankruptcy didn't help either. However, this wasn't due to finances as much as Ron Perelman buying the company with dummy corporations.

The publishers messed things up by not keeping track of delays of their crossovers. The Deathmate crossover is largely considered one of the biggest reasons of the bubble busting. The first issue sold well. Stores preordered mountains of the second issue, but it was delayed so long no one cared. Stores were left with many unsellable comics. Deathmate is not the only instance, but the magnitude of this one example is staggering.

I don't really see the two as mutually exclusive, so much as wrapped up in bed together. It's sort of like Call of Duty or casual games - it starts as a sign of a healthy, thriving industry, until the market shifts too dramatically to accommodate that audience. Endless streams of variant covers, chromium covers, Bad Girl comics that wanted to be the next Shi or Lady Death, dozens upon dozens of #1 issues and product lines designed to play into that "first issues sell more" idea, and so on. I remember going to conventions back then, and as the craze took off, most vendors (and publishers) were trying to cash in on that market, get a piece of the pie. I'd walk the tables, and literally had a dozen places to choose from if I wanted to pay anywhere from $15-75 for just about any of the "hot" comics at the time.

For a little while, it seemed healthy. A lot of new blood coming in, especially pre-teens and HS kids, many of whom were attracted by the blood and boobs that became commonplace. I won't deny that I was pretty sucked in by it for a little while. The problem with an industry boom is that it's unsustainable - delays, as you mentioned, played a role, but so did declining quality. In my case, by the time 1997 rolled around, I'd grown up enough to where it suddenly occurred to me, "Wow. A lot of this stuff... really really sucks!" So I stopped buying it. All of it, until I got back into comics in the mid-2000's. When I looked back, dozens upon dozens of companies and retailers had died before the end of the decade or just shortly after, and Marvel and DC floundered like crazy for much longer than I'd expected.

When publishers, retailers, and fans are all focused so heavily in one direction, there's going to be an eventual fallout of some kind, if not necessarily a crash. Retro and niche games, I think, are fairly safe - things ebb and flow with supply and demand, but I've seen a number of threads on vgcollect and other forums that make it pretty clear that regardless of pricing trends, there is and will always be an enthusiastic and thriving scene. Modern, current/next gen games, on the other hand? I'm much less optimistic.

[sin2beta]

I don't really see the two as mutually exclusive, so much as wrapped up in bed together. It's sort of like Call of Duty or casual games - it starts as a sign of a healthy, thriving industry, until the market shifts too dramatically to accommodate that audience. Endless streams of variant covers, chromium covers, Bad Girl comics that wanted to be the next Shi or Lady Death, dozens upon dozens of #1 issues and product lines designed to play into that "first issues sell more" idea, and so on. I remember going to conventions back then, and as the craze took off, most vendors (and publishers) were trying to cash in on that market, get a piece of the pie. I'd walk the tables, and literally had a dozen places to choose from if I wanted to pay anywhere from $15-75 for just about any of the "hot" comics at the time.

For a little while, it seemed healthy. A lot of new blood coming in, especially pre-teens and HS kids, many of whom were attracted by the blood and boobs that become commonplace. I won't deny that I was pretty sucked in by it for a little while. The problem with an industry boom is that it's unsustainable - delays, as you mentioned, played a role, but so did declining quality. In my case, by the time 1997 rolled around, I'd grown up enough to where it suddenly occurred to me, "Wow. A lot of this stuff... really really sucks!" So I stopped buying it. All of it, until I got back into comics in the mid-2000's.

When publishers, retailers, and fans are all focused so heavily in one direction, there's going to be an eventual fallout of some kind, if not necessarily a crash. Retro and niche games, I think, are fairly safe - things ebb and flow with supply and demand, but I've seen a number of threads on vgcollect and other forums that make it pretty clear that regardless of pricing trends, there is and will always be an enthusiastic and thriving scene. Modern, current/next gen games, on the other hand? I'm much less optimistic.

None of what you say do I really disagree with. But I can't say that the modern industry will die or that I am even a little reserved about the modern industry. What's happening now is the same that was happening before.

I think this generation of gaming is the best it has been in years. This is all a case of opinion. But I have actually looked at this generation as a new 16-bit generation in terms of quality. Dead Space, Elder Scrolls, Batman, Uncharted, Halo, etc are fantastic series. And spread over several studios. I actually feel very optimistic.

In terms of Call of Duty. Activision cashes in. That has been their MOs for a long time. They just do yearly releases. Call of Duty is on the same schedule as Madden. A new game every year (Black Ops on even years MW on odd years). Activision has always been about cash-ins. I mean, look at Activision's game library in the 80s (LJN anyone), the 90s a lot of movie cash ins, then they cashed in on Tony Hawk, then Guitar Hero, now Call of Duty. In all honesty, the call of duty cash in seems the most reserved Activision has been. I'm just waiting for an Activision EA merger. The perfect marriage.

The mid 2000s were FANTASTIC for comics though. Brian K. Vaughan, Joss Whedon, Kirkman. Fantastic stuff.

[insektmute]

I think this generation of gaming is the best it has been in years. This is all a case of opinion. But I have actually looked at this generation as a new 16-bit generation in terms of quality. Dead Space, Elder Scrolls, Batman, Uncharted, Halo, etc are fantastic series. And spread over several studios. I actually feel very optimistic.

Don't get me wrong, I think there are tons of great games this gen. What worries me is more related to industry behavior. Being required to login to a 3rd party site outside of Live/PSN, for example. What happens to your ability to play that game after a certain point? At what point will we lose the ability to download patches, DLC, or re-download purchased games once the PS3 and 360 are retired? How many more games will be relegated to digital-only release due to being 2D or only offering Japanese voiceovers?

As far as COD goes, it's not a new thing for them to cash-in and milk the crap out of their franchises, but companies like Activision and EA have a strong tendency to oversaturate the market with garbage and overshadow niche games and new series. Look at stuff like Mirror's Edge or Beyond Good & Evil - people have been waiting years for sequels, and things get pushed back further and further and further in favor of focusing on first-person shooters and casual mini-games. Put simply, for every gigantic money-grubbing franchise, there's a Valkyria Chronicles out there that's lost in the shuffle. I get that these are businesses and they want to make money, and this isn't a new thing, but as a gamer, it's just really sad to watch.

You could argue that people buy what they like and the market responds, but people just aren't that smart or proactive. Most people respond to what's being waved in their face, and will pick from the options presented to them, not from the options they've researched and chosen. Japan and Europe aren't any different, it's just that companies generally offer different options to those audiences based on what their marketing departments think they'll be receptive enough to sink millions of dollars into year after year.

The mid 2000s were FANTASTIC for comics though. Brian K. Vaughan, Joss Whedon, Kirkman. Fantastic stuff.

Very true, and that's really what brought me back to comics. I was absolutely overjoyed to read stuff like Y: The Last Man, Queen & Country, and Transmetropolitan, and see that sort of thing actually selling relatively well.

[sin2beta]

I think this generation of gaming is the best it has been in years. This is all a case of opinion. But I have actually looked at this generation as a new 16-bit generation in terms of quality. Dead Space, Elder Scrolls, Batman, Uncharted, Halo, etc are fantastic series. And spread over several studios. I actually feel very optimistic.

Don't get me wrong, I think there are tons of great games this gen. What worries me is more related to industry behavior. Being required to login to a 3rd party site outside of Live/PSN, for example. What happens to your ability to play that game after a certain point? At what point will we lose the ability to download patches, DLC, or re-download purchased games once the PS3 and 360 are retired? How many more games will be relegated to digital-only release due to being 2D or only offering Japanese voiceovers?

As far as COD goes, it's not a new thing for them to cash-in and milk the crap out of their franchises, but companies like Activision and EA have a strong tendency to oversaturate the market with garbage and overshadow niche games and new series. Look at stuff like Mirror's Edge or Beyond Good & Evil - people have been waiting years for sequels, and things get pushed back further and further and further in favor of focusing on first-person shooters and casual mini-games. Put simply, for every gigantic money-grubbing franchise, there's a Valkyria Chronicles out there that's lost in the shuffle. I get that these are businesses and they want to make money, and this isn't a new thing, but as a gamer, it's just really sad to watch.

You could argue that people buy what they like and the market responds, but people just aren't that smart or proactive. Most people respond to what's being waved in their face, and will pick from the options presented to them, not from the options they've researched and chosen. Japan and Europe aren't any different, it's just that companies generally offer different options to those audiences based on what their marketing departments think they'll be receptive enough to sink millions of dollars into year after year.

The mid 2000s were FANTASTIC for comics though. Brian K. Vaughan, Joss Whedon, Kirkman. Fantastic stuff.

Very true, and that's really what brought me back to comics. I was absolutely overjoyed to read stuff like Y: The Last Man, Queen & Country, and Transmetropolitan, and see that sort of thing actually selling relatively well.

Agreed.

[htimreimer]

cod is a sad series of games because its the same game every time with very little improvements every year and reviewers give these games score and people buy these games because the score the  reviewers gives it and its funny to see these reviewers trying to find something good to say about the newest cod game and this year was the moral choice system something that every game has

I think this generation of gaming is the best it has been in years. This is all a case of opinion. But I have actually looked at this generation as a new 16-bit generation in terms of quality. Dead Space, Elder Scrolls, Batman, Uncharted, Halo, etc are fantastic series. And spread over several studios. I actually feel very optimistic.

i have not played most of those games but i did play a bit of oblivion and completed the story line in skyrim and these games are full of bad business practices that we should not be supported like not bug testing the game properly and there weird hate against game patches also they rehash plot points in there story like the player being a prisoner and i'm sorry to say but oblivion and skyrim are mediocre games and thats how i feel about this generation of gaming, its was mediocre

[akhero47]

Hopefully it is.  Less demand = lower prices for us hardcore collectors

[jcalder8]

Hopefully it is.  Less demand = lower prices for us hardcore collectors

Here's hoping

[eatgrenades]

The day it dies will become a holiday on here.